Fact based stock research
Five Below (NasdaqGS:FIVE)
US33829M1018
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Five Below stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Five Below (Specialty Stores, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Five Below are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Five Below's financial characteristics. As the company Five Below's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 23), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 44), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Specialty Stores |
| Index | NASDAQ, S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Five Below
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
23 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 96 |
|
87 |
|
91 |
|
23 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
|
96 |
|
96 |
|
44 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
99 |
|
100 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
75 |
|
71 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Five Below (Specialty Stores, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Five Below are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 6, is a sell recommendation based on Five Below's financial characteristics. As the company Five Below's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 23), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 44), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 6 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
23 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 96 |
|
87 |
|
91 |
|
23 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 71 |
|
96 |
|
96 |
|
44 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 60 |
|
31 |
|
31 |
|
6 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with alternatives), Five Below shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Five Below. Price-to-Sales is 34 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 66% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Five Below's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 40, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Five Below. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 45 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Five Below's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Five Below? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Five Below? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Five Below may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 16 |
|
4 |
|
3 |
|
34 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 41 |
|
3 |
|
8 |
|
45 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 4 |
|
15 |
|
17 |
|
40 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 6 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
23 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), Five Below shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Five Below. While Sales Growth ranks at 92, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 92% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 30, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 70% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 12. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 13 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 87% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 87 |
|
93 |
|
96 |
|
92 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 81 |
|
65 |
|
75 |
|
30 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
71 |
|
53 |
|
12 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 76 |
|
29 |
|
63 |
|
13 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 96 |
|
87 |
|
91 |
|
23 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 (better than 44% compared with alternatives), the company Five Below has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Five Below is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Five Below and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 100 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 47, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 53% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), Five Below has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Five Below are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Five Below and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 69 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 52 |
|
22 |
|
22 |
|
47 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 69 |
|
70 |
|
70 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 71 |
|
96 |
|
96 |
|
44 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
70 |
|
93 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
94 |
|
98 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
79 |
|
86 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
80 |
|
79 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
99 |
|
100 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Five Below from November 14, 2024.
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