Fact based stock research
Forward Air (NasdaqGS:FWRD)

US3498531017

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Forward Air stock research in summary

forwardair.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Forward Air (Air Freight & Logistics, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Forward Air are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 56 (better than 56% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 22), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 44), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation based on Forward Air's financial characteristics. As the company Forward Air's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 56) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 22) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 44), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 56% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	56
Growth Rank	22
Safety Rank	44
Combined Rank	31

Country	USA
Industry	Air Freight & Logistics
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Forward Air

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	28	27	67	56
GROWTH
GROWTH	74	88	25	22
SAFETY
SAFETY	81	85	88	44
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	79	26	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	86	48	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Forward Air is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	28	27	67	56
GROWTH
GROWTH	74	88	25	22
SAFETY
SAFETY	81	85	88	44
COMBINED
COMBINED	62	82	76	31

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Forward Air the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 56 (better than 56% compared with alternatives), Forward Air shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Forward Air. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 87, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 87% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Forward Air's revenue size. The same is valid for dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 88, which means that dividends are expected to be higher than for 88% of comparable investments. On the other hand, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than for 67% of alternatives (only 33% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for the Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E) ratio, which is higher than for 97% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 56, is a buy recommendation based on Forward Air's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a somewhat surprising picture, because it means that profits are low while dividends are high. One interpretation could be that profits are expected to increase, justifying the high dividend payments. But it could also mean that the company desperately keeps the high dividends to avoid a collapsing share price. This would be a rather dangerous constellation. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	47	33	47	87
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	32	24	65	3
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	10	31	37	33
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	49	58	71	88
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	28	27	67	56

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Forward Air; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 22 (better than 22% compared with alternatives), Forward Air shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for Forward Air. While Sales Growth ranks at 79, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 79% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 14, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 86% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 39. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 10 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 90% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	60	63	35	79
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	10	90	37	14
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	34	78	39
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	73	73	1	10
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	74	88	25	22

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Forward Air.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 44 (better than 44% compared with alternatives), the company Forward Air has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Forward Air is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Forward Air. Refinancing is at 80, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 80% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 52, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 52% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 17, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 83% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 44 (worse than 56% compared with alternatives), Forward Air has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Forward Air could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Forward Air and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	69	82	88	17
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	67	42	58	80
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	67	87	86	52
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	81	85	88	44

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Forward Air and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	5	52	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	17	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	97	28	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	68	44	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	79	26	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Forward Air.
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