Fact based stock research
Geo Group (NYSE:GEO)
US36162J1060
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Geo Group stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Geo Group (Security & Alarm Services, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Geo Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 25, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Geo Group's financial characteristics. As the company Geo Group shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 39 (61% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 87% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 87). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 25 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Geo Group, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Security & Alarm Services |
| Index | S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Geo Group
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 89 |
|
76 |
|
57 |
|
39 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
87 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 53 |
|
47 |
|
41 |
|
25 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
40 |
|
35 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
33 |
|
23 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Geo Group (Security & Alarm Services, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Geo Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 25, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on Geo Group's financial characteristics. As the company Geo Group shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 39 (61% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 87% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 87). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 25 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Geo Group, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 89 |
|
76 |
|
57 |
|
39 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
87 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 53 |
|
47 |
|
41 |
|
25 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 47 |
|
19 |
|
18 |
|
57 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Geo Group shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Geo Group. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 83, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 83% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Geo Group's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 1, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 99% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 66% of alternatives (only 34% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 52% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Geo Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Geo Group could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Geo Group looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 100 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
83 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 79 |
|
95 |
|
74 |
|
48 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 84 |
|
80 |
|
59 |
|
34 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 89 |
|
76 |
|
57 |
|
39 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Geo Group shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Geo Group. Sales Growth has a rank of 84 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 84% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 100. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 41, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 59% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 39, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 100% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 10 |
|
13 |
|
50 |
|
84 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 16 |
|
8 |
|
27 |
|
39 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
19 |
|
35 |
|
41 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 1 |
|
7 |
|
19 |
|
100 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 5 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
87 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 25 (better than 25% compared with alternatives), the company Geo Group has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Geo Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Geo Group and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 51, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 51% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 32, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 68% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 26, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 74% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Geo Group has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Geo Group are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Geo Group and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
12 |
|
26 |
|
32 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 94 |
|
100 |
|
73 |
|
51 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 50 |
|
37 |
|
31 |
|
26 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 53 |
|
47 |
|
41 |
|
25 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
38 |
|
95 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
17 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
79 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
10 |
|
20 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
40 |
|
35 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Geo Group from November 14, 2024.
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