Fact based stock research
Geo Group (NYSE:GEO)
US36162J1060
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Geo Group stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Geo Group (Security & Alarm Services, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Geo Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 25, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 79). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Geo Group's financial characteristics. As the company Geo Group shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (63% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 79% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 79). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 25 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Geo Group, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Security & Alarm Services |
| Index | S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Geo Group
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 89 |
|
76 |
|
57 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
79 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 53 |
|
47 |
|
41 |
|
25 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
40 |
|
35 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
33 |
|
23 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Geo Group (Security & Alarm Services, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Geo Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 25, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 79). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Geo Group's financial characteristics. As the company Geo Group shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (63% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 79% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 79). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 25 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Geo Group, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 89 |
|
76 |
|
57 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
79 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 53 |
|
47 |
|
41 |
|
25 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 47 |
|
19 |
|
18 |
|
41 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), Geo Group shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for Geo Group. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 83, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 83% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Geo Group's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 50% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 1% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 72% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Geo Group to 28. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on Geo Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 100 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
83 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 79 |
|
95 |
|
74 |
|
50 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 84 |
|
80 |
|
59 |
|
28 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 89 |
|
76 |
|
57 |
|
37 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Geo Group shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Geo Group. Sales Growth has a rank of 84 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 84% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 100. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 41, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 59% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 33, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 79, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 100% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 10 |
|
13 |
|
50 |
|
84 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 16 |
|
8 |
|
27 |
|
33 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
19 |
|
35 |
|
41 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 1 |
|
7 |
|
19 |
|
100 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 5 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
79 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 25 (better than 25% compared with alternatives), the company Geo Group has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Geo Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Geo Group. Liquidity is at 28, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 72% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 32, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 68% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 46 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 54% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), Geo Group has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Geo Group because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
12 |
|
26 |
|
32 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 94 |
|
100 |
|
73 |
|
46 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 50 |
|
37 |
|
31 |
|
28 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 53 |
|
47 |
|
41 |
|
25 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
38 |
|
95 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
17 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
79 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
10 |
|
20 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
40 |
|
35 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Geo Group from December 19, 2024.
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