Fact based stock research
GFL Environmental (TSX:GFL)

CA36168Q1046

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

GFL Environmental stock research in summary

gflenv.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), GFL Environmental (Facility Services, Canada) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of GFL Environmental are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 16), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on GFL Environmental's financial characteristics. As the company GFL Environmental's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 27), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 16), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	27
Growth Rank	41
Safety Rank	16
Combined Rank	8

Country	Canada
Industry	Facility Services
Index	Low Emissions, Human Rights
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: GFL Environmental

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	9	39	46	27
GROWTH
GROWTH	72	89	87	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	10	36	12	16
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	43	42	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	53	45	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better GFL Environmental is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	9	39	46	27
GROWTH
GROWTH	72	89	87	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	10	36	12	16
COMBINED
COMBINED	17	64	53	8

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of GFL Environmental the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with alternatives), GFL Environmental shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for GFL Environmental. Price-to-Sales is 44 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 56% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning GFL Environmental's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 37, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of GFL Environmental. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 7 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 75% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on GFL Environmental's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for GFL Environmental? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as GFL Environmental? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. GFL Environmental may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	21	60	48	44
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	6	5	24	7
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	23	49	52	37
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	32	30	31	25
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	9	39	46	27

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of GFL Environmental; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), GFL Environmental shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for GFL Environmental. Sales Growth has a rank of 50 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 50% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 83. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 32, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 68% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 21, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 83% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	82	81	51	50
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	71	94	21
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	67	76	32
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	77	51	61	83
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	72	89	87	41

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of GFL Environmental.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), the company GFL Environmental has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of GFL Environmental is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for GFL Environmental. Liquidity is at 10, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 48, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 52% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 23 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 77% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with alternatives), GFL Environmental has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of GFL Environmental because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	46	50	30	48
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	35	75	41	23
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	3	8	10	10
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	10	36	12	16

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of GFL Environmental and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	48	72	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	41	6	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	56	64	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	43	42	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for GFL Environmental.
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