Fact based stock research
GMS (NYSE:GMS)
US36251C1036
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
GMS stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with investment alternatives), GMS (Trading & Distribution, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of GMS are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 55). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on GMS's financial characteristics. As the company GMS shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (75% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 55% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 55). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for GMS, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Trading & Distribution |
| Index | |
| Size class | X-Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: GMS
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 35 |
|
43 |
|
37 |
|
25 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 86 |
|
41 |
|
45 |
|
55 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 23 |
|
34 |
|
21 |
|
21 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
96 |
|
82 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
52 |
|
28 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with investment alternatives), GMS (Trading & Distribution, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of GMS are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 55). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on GMS's financial characteristics. As the company GMS shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (75% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 55% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 55). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for GMS, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 35 |
|
43 |
|
37 |
|
25 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 86 |
|
41 |
|
45 |
|
55 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 23 |
|
34 |
|
21 |
|
21 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 33 |
|
11 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with alternatives), GMS shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for GMS. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 60, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 60% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning GMS's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 69% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 1% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 58% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for GMS to 42. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on GMS's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 55 |
|
64 |
|
64 |
|
60 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 70 |
|
95 |
|
81 |
|
69 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 30 |
|
56 |
|
49 |
|
42 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 35 |
|
43 |
|
37 |
|
25 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), GMS shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for GMS. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 28, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 72% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 34, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 47. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 53% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 87, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 87% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for GMS, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 54 |
|
17 |
|
12 |
|
28 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
71 |
|
41 |
|
47 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
28 |
|
57 |
|
34 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 94 |
|
83 |
|
75 |
|
87 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 86 |
|
41 |
|
45 |
|
55 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), the company GMS has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of GMS is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for GMS and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 50, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 50% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 32, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 68% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 44, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 56% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), GMS has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for GMS are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with GMS and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 22 |
|
30 |
|
30 |
|
32 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 68 |
|
65 |
|
56 |
|
50 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 37 |
|
38 |
|
36 |
|
44 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 23 |
|
34 |
|
21 |
|
21 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
67 |
|
48 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
72 |
|
97 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
84 |
|
92 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
46 |
|
32 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
96 |
|
82 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for GMS from November 14, 2024.
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