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Goosehead Insurance (NasdaqGS:GSHD)

US38267D1090

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Goosehead Insurance stock research in summary

ir.gooseheadinsurance.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with investment alternatives), Goosehead Insurance (Insurance Brokers, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Goosehead Insurance are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 100) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 62, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 43, is a hold recommendation based on Goosehead Insurance's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Goosehead Insurance exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 100). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 62) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	1
Growth Rank	100
Safety Rank	62
Combined Rank	43

Country	USA
Industry	Insurance Brokers
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	Small

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Goosehead Insurance

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	35	15	1	1
GROWTH
GROWTH	82	7	100	100
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	62	62	62
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	77	60	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	11	78	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Goosehead Insurance is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	35	15	1	1
GROWTH
GROWTH	82	7	100	100
SAFETY
SAFETY	18	62	62	62
COMBINED
COMBINED	42	43	43	43

Last update of combined financial performance: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Goosehead Insurance the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Goosehead Insurance shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Goosehead Insurance. Price-to-Sales is 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 97% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Goosehead Insurance's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 1, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Goosehead Insurance. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Goosehead Insurance's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Goosehead Insurance? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Goosehead Insurance? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Goosehead Insurance may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	3	1	1	3
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	7	1	1	3
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	100	100	1	1
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	40	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	35	15	1	1

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Goosehead Insurance; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2022, Goosehead Insurance shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Goosehead Insurance. Sales Growth has a value of 100, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 100% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 75 and for Capital Growth with 99. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 81, which means they have been higher than 81% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Goosehead Insurance exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	90	98	96	100
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	15	96	75
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	1	100	99
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	90	7	93	81
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	82	7	100	100

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Goosehead Insurance.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), the company Goosehead Insurance has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Goosehead Insurance is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Goosehead Insurance. Liquidity is at 27, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 1, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 99% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 18 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 82% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), Goosehead Insurance has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Goosehead Insurance because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	53	1	1	1
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	31	18	18	18
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	10	36	22	27
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	18	62	62	62

Last update of Safety Rank: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Goosehead Insurance and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	1	57	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	36	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	100	36	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	88	91	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	77	60	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Goosehead Insurance.
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