Fact based stock research
Green Plains (NasdaqGS:GPRE)
US3932221043
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Green Plains stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Green Plains (Oil & Gas Refining, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Green Plains are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 59, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Green Plains's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Green Plains exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 32), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 59) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining |
| Index | Low Emissions, Energy Efficient, Water Efficiency, NASDAQ |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Green Plains
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 28 |
|
11 |
|
4 |
|
32 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 25 |
|
29 |
|
67 |
|
59 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 72 |
|
79 |
|
53 |
|
59 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
23 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
19 |
|
33 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with investment alternatives), Green Plains (Oil & Gas Refining, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Green Plains are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 59, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Green Plains's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Green Plains exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 32), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 59) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 28 |
|
11 |
|
4 |
|
32 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 25 |
|
29 |
|
67 |
|
59 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 72 |
|
79 |
|
53 |
|
59 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 28 |
|
21 |
|
34 |
|
47 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with alternatives), Green Plains shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Green Plains. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 85, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 85% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Green Plains's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 77% of alternatives (23% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 9, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation based on Green Plains's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Green Plains may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 81 |
|
69 |
|
71 |
|
85 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 10 |
|
13 |
|
5 |
|
9 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 23 |
|
56 |
|
28 |
|
77 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 52 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 28 |
|
11 |
|
4 |
|
32 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Green Plains shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Green Plains. Sales Growth has a value of 54 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 54% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a value of 90 and Capital Growth with a rank of 67 means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow both profits and invested capital more than of its competitors. But Stock Returns has only a rank of 5, which means that stock returns have recently been below 95% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Green Plains has only one below-average growth indicator, the stock returns. This is probably the least reliable growth indicator, because it measures company and investor expectations at the same time. The three other growth indicators, which are all positive for Green Plains, are more reliable measures of growth momentum. For this reason, the company seems to be on a good trajectory, unless you think the current period is not representative, because of unique events that will not be repeated in the future. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 14 |
|
30 |
|
17 |
|
54 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 7 |
|
32 |
|
83 |
|
90 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
30 |
|
84 |
|
67 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 58 |
|
69 |
|
23 |
|
5 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 25 |
|
29 |
|
67 |
|
59 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), the company Green Plains has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Green Plains is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Green Plains and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 93, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 93% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 48, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 52% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 8, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 92% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Green Plains has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Green Plains are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Green Plains and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 79 |
|
75 |
|
52 |
|
48 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 92 |
|
95 |
|
81 |
|
93 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 6 |
|
13 |
|
6 |
|
8 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 72 |
|
79 |
|
53 |
|
59 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
91 |
|
89 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
22 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
9 |
|
12 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
16 |
|
29 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
23 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Green Plains from November 14, 2024.
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