Fact based stock research
Gudang Garam (IDX:GGRM)

ID1000068604

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Gudang Garam stock research in summary

gudanggaramtbk.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Gudang Garam (Tobacco, Indonesia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Gudang Garam are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 92, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 82, is a strong buy recommendation based on Gudang Garam's financial characteristics. As the company Gudang Garam's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 92), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	100
Growth Rank	1
Safety Rank	92
Combined Rank	82

Country	Indonesia
Industry	Tobacco
Index	Independent Boards Growth Markets, IDX Composite
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Gudang Garam

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	79	99	99	100
GROWTH
GROWTH	22	23	77	1
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	99	99	92
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	19	41	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	73	97	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Gudang Garam is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	79	99	99	100
GROWTH
GROWTH	22	23	77	1
SAFETY
SAFETY	100	99	99	92
COMBINED
COMBINED	91	91	100	82

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Gudang Garam the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Gudang Garam shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Gudang Garam. Price-to-Sales is 91 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 91% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Gudang Garam's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 97% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 100. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Gudang Garam are expected to be higher than for 100% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 100). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on Gudang Garam's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Gudang Garam based on its detailed value metrics. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	81	85	85	91
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	91	81	93	97
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	90	93	97	100
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	98	89	100	100
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	79	99	99	100

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Gudang Garam; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), Gudang Garam shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Gudang Garam. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 61, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 1% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 6 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 94% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 1 and Stock Returns with a rank of 1 are also low (below 99% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Gudang Garam is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	46	67	8	6
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	33	12	98	1
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	46	72	61
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	10	11	77	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	22	23	77	1

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Gudang Garam.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Gudang Garam has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Gudang Garam is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Gudang Garam. Leverage is at 70, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 70% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 99, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 99% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 68, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 68% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 92 (better than 92% compared with alternatives), Gudang Garam has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Gudang Garam but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	90	82	76	70
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	96	95	95	99
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	100	80	65	68
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	100	99	99	92

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Gudang Garam and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	12	29	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	39	48	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	43	56	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	19	41	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Gudang Garam.
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