Fact based stock research
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)
US4128221086
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Harley-Davidson stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with investment alternatives), Harley-Davidson (Motorcycle Manufacturers, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Harley-Davidson are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 81 (better than 81% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 76, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation based on Harley-Davidson's financial characteristics. As the company Harley-Davidson's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 81) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 76), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 81% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
Latest Obermatt Ranks
Log in or sign up to see the new 360° View and Sentiment ranks.
360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Motorcycle Manufacturers |
| Index | S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | X-Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Harley-Davidson
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 67 |
|
59 |
|
82 |
|
81 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
|
53 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
76 |
|
76 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
59 |
|
87 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with investment alternatives), Harley-Davidson (Motorcycle Manufacturers, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Harley-Davidson are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 81 (better than 81% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 76, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation based on Harley-Davidson's financial characteristics. As the company Harley-Davidson's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 81) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 76), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 81% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 67 |
|
59 |
|
82 |
|
81 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
|
53 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
76 |
|
76 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 58 |
|
37 |
|
71 |
|
67 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 81 (better than 81% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Harley-Davidson shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Harley-Davidson. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price to earnings, P/E ratio) is 91 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 91% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Harley-Davidson's profit levels. The same is valid for the expected Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 64, and for Dividend Yield with a Dividend Yield Rank of 85. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the stock price is higher than average as regards expected revenues; only 64% of all competitors have an even higher stock price as regards to sales revenues (a Price-to-Sales Rank of 36). Profits, the level of invested capital, and dividend policy suggest that this stock is attractively priced. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 81, is a buy recommendation based on Harley-Davidson's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since it is on the expensive side for Price-to-Sales, it may mean that Harley-Davidson has pricing power in its distribution market because it can charge higher prices than its competitors. If this is the case, all four value indicators are positive signals for purchasing Harley-Davidson shares. 9. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 71 |
|
43 |
|
32 |
|
36 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 95 |
|
66 |
|
88 |
|
91 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 47 |
|
63 |
|
73 |
|
64 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 59 |
|
65 |
|
80 |
|
85 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 67 |
|
59 |
|
82 |
|
81 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), Harley-Davidson shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Harley-Davidson. Sales Growth has a rank of 26, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 74% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 18, and Capital Growth with 14. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 45, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 55% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 53 |
|
14 |
|
8 |
|
26 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 56 |
|
100 |
|
34 |
|
18 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
79 |
|
41 |
|
14 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 94 |
|
27 |
|
11 |
|
45 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 95 |
|
53 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 76 (better than 76% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Harley-Davidson has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Harley-Davidson is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Harley-Davidson. Refinancing is at 79, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 89, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 89% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 14, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 86% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 76 (better than 76% compared with alternatives), Harley-Davidson has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Harley-Davidson could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Harley-Davidson and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
10 |
|
18 |
|
14 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 27 |
|
53 |
|
82 |
|
79 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 30 |
|
48 |
|
89 |
|
89 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
76 |
|
76 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
60 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
83 |
|
83 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
96 |
|
100 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
37 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Harley-Davidson from December 19, 2024.
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our free research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.