Fact based stock research
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)
US4128221086
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
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Harley-Davidson stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Harley-Davidson (Motorcycle Manufacturers, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Harley-Davidson are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 83 (better than 83% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 76, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation based on Harley-Davidson's financial characteristics. As the company Harley-Davidson's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 83) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 76), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 83% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Motorcycle Manufacturers |
| Index | S&P MIDCAP |
| Size class | X-Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Harley-Davidson
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 67 |
|
59 |
|
82 |
|
83 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
|
53 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
76 |
|
76 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
59 |
|
87 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Harley-Davidson (Motorcycle Manufacturers, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Harley-Davidson are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 83 (better than 83% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 76, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation based on Harley-Davidson's financial characteristics. As the company Harley-Davidson's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 83) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 76), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 83% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 67 |
|
59 |
|
82 |
|
83 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 95 |
|
53 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
76 |
|
76 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 58 |
|
37 |
|
71 |
|
69 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 83 (better than 83% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Harley-Davidson shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Harley-Davidson. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price to earnings, P/E ratio) is 88 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 88% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Harley-Davidson's profit levels. The same is valid for the expected Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 67, and for Dividend Yield with a Dividend Yield Rank of 85. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the stock price is higher than average as regards expected revenues; only 60% of all competitors have an even higher stock price as regards to sales revenues (a Price-to-Sales Rank of 40). Profits, the level of invested capital, and dividend policy suggest that this stock is attractively priced. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 83, is a buy recommendation based on Harley-Davidson's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since it is on the expensive side for Price-to-Sales, it may mean that Harley-Davidson has pricing power in its distribution market because it can charge higher prices than its competitors. If this is the case, all four value indicators are positive signals for purchasing Harley-Davidson shares. 9. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 71 |
|
43 |
|
32 |
|
40 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 95 |
|
66 |
|
88 |
|
88 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 47 |
|
63 |
|
73 |
|
67 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 59 |
|
65 |
|
80 |
|
85 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 67 |
|
59 |
|
82 |
|
83 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), Harley-Davidson shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Harley-Davidson. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 28, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 72% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 16, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 18. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 82% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 55, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 55% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Harley-Davidson, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 53 |
|
14 |
|
8 |
|
28 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 56 |
|
100 |
|
34 |
|
18 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
79 |
|
41 |
|
16 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 94 |
|
27 |
|
11 |
|
55 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 95 |
|
53 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 76 (better than 76% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Harley-Davidson has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Harley-Davidson is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Harley-Davidson. Refinancing is at 77, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 77% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 89, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 89% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 16, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 84% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 76 (better than 76% compared with alternatives), Harley-Davidson has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Harley-Davidson could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Harley-Davidson and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
10 |
|
18 |
|
16 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 27 |
|
53 |
|
82 |
|
77 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 30 |
|
48 |
|
89 |
|
89 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 3 |
|
19 |
|
76 |
|
76 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
60 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
83 |
|
83 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
96 |
|
100 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
37 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
86 |
|
88 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Harley-Davidson from November 14, 2024.
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