Fact based stock research
HelloFresh (XTRA:HFG)

DE000A161408

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

HelloFresh stock research in summary

hellofreshgroup.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), HelloFresh (Food Retail, Germany) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of HelloFresh are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 15) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 52), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on HelloFresh's financial characteristics. As the company HelloFresh's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 32) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 15), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 52) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	32
Growth Rank	15
Safety Rank	52
Combined Rank	8

Country	Germany
Industry	Food Retail
Index	CDAX, DAX 40, Human Rights, Renewables Users, MDAX
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Gold Winner CEO.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: HelloFresh

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	12	9	47	32
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	51	17	15
SAFETY
SAFETY	54	86	71	52
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	31	47	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	39	37	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better HelloFresh is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	12	9	47	32
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	51	17	15
SAFETY
SAFETY	54	86	71	52
COMBINED
COMBINED	56	50	28	8

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of HelloFresh the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for HelloFresh. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 69, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 69% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to HelloFresh's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 1, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 99% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 53% of alternatives (only 47% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 80% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation based on HelloFresh's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in HelloFresh could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, HelloFresh looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	43	30	62	69
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	42	20	70	20
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	12	13	39	47
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	12	9	47	32

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of HelloFresh; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 15 (better than 15% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for HelloFresh. Sales Growth has a rank of 29, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 71% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 10, and Capital Growth with 33. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 37, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 63% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 15, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	84	84	64	29
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	98	34	18	10
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	1	17	33
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	76	59	18	37
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	86	51	17	15

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of HelloFresh.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), the company HelloFresh has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of HelloFresh is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for HelloFresh. Leverage is at a rank of 61, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 61% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 63, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 25, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for HelloFresh. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with HelloFresh and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	46	74	61	61
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	30	43	34	25
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	84	92	82	63
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	54	86	71	52

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of HelloFresh and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	50	20	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	26	31	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	30	51	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	74	93	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	31	47	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for HelloFresh.
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