Fact based stock research
HelloFresh (XTRA:HFG)
DE000A161408
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
HelloFresh stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with investment alternatives), HelloFresh (Food Retail, Germany) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of HelloFresh are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 28 (worse than 72% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 50), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on HelloFresh's financial characteristics. As the company HelloFresh's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 28) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 50) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Germany |
| Industry | Food Retail |
| Index | CDAX, DAX 40, Human Rights, Renewables Users, MDAX |
| Size class | X-Large |
This stock has achievements: Gold Winner CEO.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: HelloFresh
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 12 |
|
9 |
|
47 |
|
28 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 86 |
|
51 |
|
17 |
|
3 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 54 |
|
86 |
|
71 |
|
50 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
31 |
|
47 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
39 |
|
37 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with investment alternatives), HelloFresh (Food Retail, Germany) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of HelloFresh are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 28 (worse than 72% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 3) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 50), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on HelloFresh's financial characteristics. As the company HelloFresh's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 28) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 3), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 50) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 12 |
|
9 |
|
47 |
|
28 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 86 |
|
51 |
|
17 |
|
3 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 54 |
|
86 |
|
71 |
|
50 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 56 |
|
50 |
|
28 |
|
1 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 28 (worse than 72% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for HelloFresh. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 69, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 69% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning HelloFresh's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 53% of alternatives (47% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 17, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 28, is a hold recommendation based on HelloFresh's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for HelloFresh may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 43 |
|
30 |
|
62 |
|
69 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 42 |
|
20 |
|
70 |
|
17 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 12 |
|
13 |
|
39 |
|
53 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 12 |
|
9 |
|
47 |
|
28 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for HelloFresh. Sales Growth has a rank of 27, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 73% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 6, and Capital Growth with 23. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 7, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 93% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 3, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 84 |
|
84 |
|
64 |
|
27 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 98 |
|
34 |
|
18 |
|
6 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
1 |
|
17 |
|
23 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 76 |
|
59 |
|
18 |
|
7 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 86 |
|
51 |
|
17 |
|
3 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with alternatives), the company HelloFresh has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of HelloFresh is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for HelloFresh. Leverage is at a rank of 61, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 61% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 65, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 65% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 23, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 77% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for HelloFresh. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with HelloFresh and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 46 |
|
74 |
|
61 |
|
61 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 30 |
|
43 |
|
34 |
|
23 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 84 |
|
92 |
|
82 |
|
65 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 54 |
|
86 |
|
71 |
|
50 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
50 |
|
20 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
26 |
|
31 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
30 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
74 |
|
93 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
31 |
|
47 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for HelloFresh from November 14, 2024.
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