Fact based stock research
HelloFresh (XTRA:HFG)

DE000A161408

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

HelloFresh stock research in summary

hellofreshgroup.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with investment alternatives), HelloFresh (Food Retail, Germany) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of HelloFresh are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 78, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 23). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on HelloFresh's financial characteristics. As the company HelloFresh's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 23) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 78), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 51% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	n/a
Growth Rank	n/a
Safety Rank	n/a
Combined Rank	n/a

Country	Germany
Industry	Food Retail
Index	CDAX, DAX 40, Human Rights, Renewables Users, MDAX
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Gold Winner CEO.

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Research History: HelloFresh

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	12	9	47	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	51	17	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	54	86	71	n/a
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	31	47	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	39	37	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: . Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: . Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better HelloFresh is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	12	9	47	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	86	51	17	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	54	86	71	n/a
COMBINED
COMBINED	56	50	28	n/a

Last update of combined financial performance: . Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of HelloFresh the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half are above average for HelloFresh. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 66, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 66% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning HelloFresh's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 70% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 (dividends are expected to be higher than for 1% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 55% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for HelloFresh to 45. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation based on HelloFresh's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner on assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities, or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the low Dividend Yield is also explained as such companies tend to invest their income into market development. The other good value ranks for Sales and Profits are encouraging indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	43	30	62	n/a
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	42	20	70	n/a
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	12	13	39	n/a
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	12	9	47	n/a

Last update of Value Rank: . Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of HelloFresh; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 23 (better than 23% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below-average for HelloFresh. While Sales Growth ranks at 68, professionals currently expect the company to grow more than 68% of its competitors, while all other growth ranks are below the market median. Profit Growth has a rank of 17, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 83% of its competitors, and Capital Growth has a low rank of 30. Historic stock returns were also below average with a current Stock Returns rank of 13 which means that the stock returns have recently been below 87% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. If revenues are expected to increase, but all other growth indicators are negative, the company may be investing in future growth through means not visible in the balance sheet and thus not reflected in capital growth. The fact that Stock Returns have been below market doesn't mean that much, as it may be due to overly optimistic investor behavior in the past, which has been corrected to a more reasonable level recently. If that were the case, a positive Value Rank would be a reason to invest because the company is still expected to grow, while stock prices are now at a more reasonable level. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance isn't stellar here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	84	84	64	n/a
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	98	34	18	n/a
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	1	17	n/a
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	76	59	18	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	86	51	17	n/a

Last update of Growth Rank: . Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of HelloFresh.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives) for 2025, the company HelloFresh has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of HelloFresh is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for HelloFresh. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 82, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 35, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 65% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 78 (better than 78% compared with alternatives), HelloFresh has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for HelloFresh. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with HelloFresh and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	46	74	61	n/a
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	30	43	34	n/a
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	84	92	82	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	54	86	71	n/a

Last update of Safety Rank: . Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of HelloFresh and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	50	20	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	26	31	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	30	51	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	74	93	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	31	47	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: . Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for HelloFresh.
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