Fact based stock research
Hershey (NYSE:HSY)

US4278661081

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Hershey stock research in summary

thehersheycompany.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), Hershey (Packaged Foods & Meats, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Hershey are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 31 (worse than 69% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 17), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 48), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on Hershey's financial characteristics. As the company Hershey's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 31), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 17), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 48), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	31
Growth Rank	17
Safety Rank	48
Combined Rank	8

Country	USA
Industry	Packaged Foods & Meats
Index	Diversity USA, Human Rights, S&P US Consumer, S&P US Food & Beverage, S&P 500
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Hershey

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	23	23	26	31
GROWTH
GROWTH	65	84	15	17
SAFETY
SAFETY	38	24	33	48
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	62	70	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	47	14	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 29-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Hershey is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	23	23	26	31
GROWTH
GROWTH	65	84	15	17
SAFETY
SAFETY	38	24	33	48
COMBINED
COMBINED	38	39	4	8

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Hershey the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with alternatives), Hershey shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Hershey. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 70% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 17 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 83% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Hershey's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 30 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 70% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 15 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 85% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation based on Hershey's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Hershey? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Hershey only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	18	15	13	17
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	61	37	45	30
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	4	11	10	15
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	64	56	70	70
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	23	23	26	31

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Hershey; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 17 (better than 17% compared with alternatives), Hershey shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Hershey. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 43, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 57% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 9, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 25. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 75% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 53, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 53% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Hershey, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	44	40	39	43
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	28	55	50	25
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	84	20	9
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	64	91	27	53
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	65	84	15	17

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Hershey.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 48 (better than 48% compared with alternatives), the company Hershey has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Hershey is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Hershey. Liquidity is at 85, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 85% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 21, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 26, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 74% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with alternatives), Hershey has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	55	6	18	26
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	35	15	18	21
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	48	83	86	85
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	38	24	33	48

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Hershey and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	33	36	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	39	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	41	70	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	98	95	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	62	70	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Hershey.
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