Fact based stock research
Hilltop (NYSE:HTH)
US4327481010
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Hilltop stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Hilltop (Regional Banks, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Hilltop are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation based on Hilltop's financial characteristics. As the company Hilltop's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 11) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Regional Banks |
| Index | D.J. US Banks |
| Size class | XX-Large |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Hilltop
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 88 |
|
13 |
|
6 |
|
11 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 59 |
|
9 |
|
48 |
|
1 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
|
100 |
|
98 |
|
98 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
44 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
7 |
|
49 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Hilltop (Regional Banks, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Hilltop are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation based on Hilltop's financial characteristics. As the company Hilltop's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 11) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 88 |
|
13 |
|
6 |
|
11 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 59 |
|
9 |
|
48 |
|
1 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 100 |
|
100 |
|
98 |
|
98 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 95 |
|
17 |
|
57 |
|
18 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% compared with alternatives), Hilltop shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for Hilltop. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 76, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 76% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 6 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 94% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Hilltop's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 76 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 80% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation based on Hilltop's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for Hilltop, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 80 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 85 |
|
33 |
|
3 |
|
7 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 68 |
|
64 |
|
45 |
|
76 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 66 |
|
17 |
|
12 |
|
20 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 88 |
|
13 |
|
6 |
|
11 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), Hilltop shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Hilltop. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 50, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 50% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 4, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 96% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 11 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 5 (95% of alternative investments were better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 54 |
|
6 |
|
16 |
|
4 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 52 |
|
10 |
|
54 |
|
50 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
73 |
|
15 |
|
11 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 58 |
|
51 |
|
89 |
|
5 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 59 |
|
9 |
|
48 |
|
1 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Hilltop has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Hilltop is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Hilltop. Leverage is at 85, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 85% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 82, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 82% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 100, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives), Hilltop has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Hilltop but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 98 |
|
94 |
|
91 |
|
85 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 86 |
|
77 |
|
78 |
|
82 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 93 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 100 |
|
100 |
|
98 |
|
98 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
20 |
|
3 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
18 |
|
83 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
31 |
|
84 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
2 |
|
19 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
44 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Hilltop from November 14, 2024.
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