Fact based stock research
Kogan.com (ASX:KGN)
AU000000KGN2
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Kogan.com stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Kogan.com (Internet Retail, Australia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Kogan.com are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 60, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 77, is a strong buy recommendation based on Kogan.com's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Kogan.com exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 39), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 87). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 60) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Australia |
| Industry | Internet Retail |
| Index | ASX 300 |
| Size class | Medium |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Kogan.com
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 53 |
|
21 |
|
17 |
|
39 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
|
3 |
|
100 |
|
87 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 88 |
|
53 |
|
44 |
|
60 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
12 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
1 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Kogan.com (Internet Retail, Australia) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Kogan.com are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 60, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 77, is a strong buy recommendation based on Kogan.com's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Kogan.com exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 39), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 87). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 60) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 53 |
|
21 |
|
17 |
|
39 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 13 |
|
3 |
|
100 |
|
87 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 88 |
|
53 |
|
44 |
|
60 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 72 |
|
4 |
|
58 |
|
77 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), Kogan.com shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Kogan.com. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 85% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 40 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 60% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Kogan.com's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 32 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 68% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 20 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 80% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Kogan.com's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Kogan.com? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Kogan.com only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 65 |
|
51 |
|
38 |
|
40 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 33 |
|
23 |
|
5 |
|
32 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 28 |
|
30 |
|
32 |
|
20 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
25 |
|
32 |
|
85 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 53 |
|
21 |
|
17 |
|
39 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Kogan.com shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Kogan.com. Sales Growth has a value of 59 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 59% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a value of 63 and Capital Growth with a rank of 90 means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow both profits and invested capital more than of its competitors. But Stock Returns has only a rank of 47, which means that stock returns have recently been below 53% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Kogan.com has only one below-average growth indicator, the stock returns. This is probably the least reliable growth indicator, because it measures company and investor expectations at the same time. The three other growth indicators, which are all positive for Kogan.com, are more reliable measures of growth momentum. For this reason, the company seems to be on a good trajectory, unless you think the current period is not representative, because of unique events that will not be repeated in the future. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 49 |
|
51 |
|
68 |
|
59 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
6 |
|
96 |
|
63 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
32 |
|
88 |
|
90 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 4 |
|
3 |
|
95 |
|
47 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 13 |
|
3 |
|
100 |
|
87 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), the company Kogan.com has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Kogan.com is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Kogan.com and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 77 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 77% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 46, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 54% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 45, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 55% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 60 (better than 60% compared with alternatives), Kogan.com has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Kogan.com are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Kogan.com and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 38 |
|
42 |
|
81 |
|
77 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 74 |
|
68 |
|
50 |
|
46 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 74 |
|
42 |
|
4 |
|
45 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 88 |
|
53 |
|
44 |
|
60 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
24 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
17 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
63 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
13 |
|
59 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
12 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Kogan.com from November 14, 2024.
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