Fact based stock research
Mainfreight (NZSE:MFT)

NZMFTE0001S9

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Mainfreight stock research in summary

mainfreight.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Mainfreight (Air Freight & Logistics, New Zealand) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mainfreight are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 7 (worse than 93% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 63) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Mainfreight's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Mainfreight exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 7), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 63). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	7
Growth Rank	63
Safety Rank	65
Combined Rank	25

Country	New Zealand
Industry	Air Freight & Logistics
Index	NZSX 50
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Mainfreight

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	21	5	6	7
GROWTH
GROWTH	92	59	39	63
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	69	69	65
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	62	81	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	35	40	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Mainfreight is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	21	5	6	7
GROWTH
GROWTH	92	59	39	63
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	69	69	65
COMBINED
COMBINED	76	36	24	25

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Mainfreight the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Mainfreight. Price-to-Sales is 37 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 63% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Mainfreight's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 11, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Mainfreight. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 5 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 77% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Mainfreight's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Mainfreight? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Mainfreight? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Mainfreight may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	38	28	31	37
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	40	24	20	5
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	8	1	3	11
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	49	49	37	23
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	21	5	6	7

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Mainfreight; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Mainfreight. Sales Growth has a rank of 87 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 87% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 15% of competitors with a rank of 74. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 15, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 85% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 49. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	86	43	82	87
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	89	52	37	15
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	45	36	74
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	92	69	35	49
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	92	59	39	63

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Mainfreight.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), the company Mainfreight has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Mainfreight is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Mainfreight. Leverage is at a rank of 54, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 54% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 84, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 84% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 39, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 61% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Mainfreight. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Mainfreight and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	76	66	62	54
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	59	27	41	39
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	81	84	80	84
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	89	69	69	65

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Mainfreight and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	57	61	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	24	70	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	87	86	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	62	81	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Mainfreight.
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