Fact based stock research
Mainfreight (NZSE:MFT)

NZMFTE0001S9

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Mainfreight stock research in summary

mainfreight.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Mainfreight (Air Freight & Logistics, New Zealand) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mainfreight are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 7 (worse than 93% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 57), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Mainfreight's financial characteristics. As the company Mainfreight's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 7) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 57) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	7
Growth Rank	41
Safety Rank	57
Combined Rank	21

Country	New Zealand
Industry	Air Freight & Logistics
Index	NZSX 50
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Mainfreight

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	21	5	6	7
GROWTH
GROWTH	92	59	39	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	69	69	57
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	62	81	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	35	40	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Mar-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Mainfreight is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	21	5	6	7
GROWTH
GROWTH	92	59	39	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	69	69	57
COMBINED
COMBINED	76	36	24	21

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Mainfreight the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Mainfreight. Price-to-Sales is 36 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 64% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Mainfreight's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 9, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Mainfreight. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 7 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 76% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Mainfreight's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Mainfreight? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Mainfreight? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Mainfreight may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	38	28	31	36
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	40	24	20	7
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	8	1	3	9
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	49	49	37	24
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	21	5	6	7

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Mainfreight; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Mainfreight. Sales Growth has a rank of 84 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 84% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 57. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 48, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 52% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 11, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 57% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	86	43	82	84
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	89	52	37	11
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	45	36	48
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	92	69	35	57
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	92	59	39	41

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Mainfreight.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), the company Mainfreight has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Mainfreight is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Mainfreight. Leverage is at a rank of 52, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 52% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 82, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 82% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 37, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 63% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), Mainfreight has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Mainfreight. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Mainfreight and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	76	66	62	52
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	59	27	41	37
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	81	84	80	82
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	89	69	69	57

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Mainfreight and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	57	61	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	24	70	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	87	86	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	62	81	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Mainfreight.
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