Fact based stock research
Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO)
US5658491064
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Marathon Oil stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), Marathon Oil (Oil & Gas Production, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Marathon Oil are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 26), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on Marathon Oil's financial characteristics. As the company Marathon Oil's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 26), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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Country | USA |
Industry | Oil & Gas Production |
Index | Diversity USA, Oil & Gas, S&P 500 |
Size class | X-Large |
2-May-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Marathon Oil
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 7 |
|
29 |
|
50 |
|
49 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 88 |
|
67 |
|
27 |
|
11 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 20 |
|
55 |
|
28 |
|
26 |
|
SENTIMENT | ||||||||
SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
55 |
|
39 |
|
new | |
360° VIEW | ||||||||
360° VIEW | n/a |
|
51 |
|
20 |
|
new |
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 8 (worse than 92% compared with investment alternatives), Marathon Oil (Oil & Gas Production, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Marathon Oil are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 11), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 26), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 8, is a sell recommendation based on Marathon Oil's financial characteristics. As the company Marathon Oil's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 11), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 26), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 7 |
|
29 |
|
50 |
|
49 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 88 |
|
67 |
|
27 |
|
11 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 20 |
|
55 |
|
28 |
|
26 |
|
COMBINED | ||||||||
COMBINED | 20 |
|
51 |
|
18 |
|
8 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Marathon Oil shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Marathon Oil. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 58 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 58% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Marathon Oil's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 65, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 65% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 63% of alternatives (only 37% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 62% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Marathon Oil's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 10 |
|
16 |
|
34 |
|
37 |
|
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 14 |
|
24 |
|
59 |
|
58 |
|
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 45 |
|
78 |
|
59 |
|
65 |
|
DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
DIVIDEND YIELD | 29 |
|
41 |
|
44 |
|
38 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 7 |
|
29 |
|
50 |
|
49 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), Marathon Oil shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Marathon Oil. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 12, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 88% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 34, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 49. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 51% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 55, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 55% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Marathon Oil, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
REVENUE GROWTH | 71 |
|
26 |
|
35 |
|
12 |
|
PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
PROFIT GROWTH | 7 |
|
55 |
|
50 |
|
49 |
|
CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
94 |
|
38 |
|
34 |
|
STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
STOCK RETURNS | 92 |
|
59 |
|
41 |
|
55 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 88 |
|
67 |
|
27 |
|
11 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 26 (better than 26% compared with alternatives), the company Marathon Oil has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Marathon Oil is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Marathon Oil. Liquidity is at 42, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 58% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 43, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 57% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 10 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 90% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 26 (worse than 74% compared with alternatives), Marathon Oil has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Marathon Oil because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LEVERAGE | ||||||||
LEVERAGE | 60 |
|
71 |
|
36 |
|
43 |
|
REFINANCING | ||||||||
REFINANCING | 29 |
|
75 |
|
24 |
|
10 |
|
LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
LIQUIDITY | 15 |
|
7 |
|
45 |
|
42 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 20 |
|
55 |
|
28 |
|
26 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
38 |
|
57 |
|
new | |
OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
9 |
|
28 |
|
new | |
PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
31 |
|
21 |
|
new | |
MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
100 |
|
85 |
|
new | |
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
55 |
|
39 |
|
new |
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Marathon Oil from May 2, 2024.
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