Fact based stock research
Medifast (NYSE:MED)
US58470H1014
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Medifast stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Medifast (Personal Products, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Medifast are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 95), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on Medifast's financial characteristics. As the company Medifast's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 45) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 95) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Personal Products |
| Index | Dividends USA |
| Size class | Large |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Medifast
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 57 |
|
77 |
|
82 |
|
45 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 92 |
|
96 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 54 |
|
84 |
|
98 |
|
95 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
94 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
100 |
|
38 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 48 (worse than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Medifast (Personal Products, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Medifast are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 1) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 95), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 48, is a hold recommendation based on Medifast's financial characteristics. As the company Medifast's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 45) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 1), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 95) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 57 |
|
77 |
|
82 |
|
45 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 92 |
|
96 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 54 |
|
84 |
|
98 |
|
95 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 83 |
|
90 |
|
77 |
|
48 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 45 (worse than 55% compared with alternatives), Medifast shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Medifast. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 89, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 89% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Medifast's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 86% of alternatives (14% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 1 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 99% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 5, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation based on Medifast's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Medifast may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 63 |
|
65 |
|
69 |
|
89 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 75 |
|
93 |
|
97 |
|
5 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 6 |
|
15 |
|
25 |
|
86 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 80 |
|
97 |
|
100 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 57 |
|
77 |
|
82 |
|
45 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), Medifast shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Medifast. Sales Growth has a rank of 1, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 99% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 6, and Capital Growth with 34. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 3, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 97% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 94 |
|
82 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 25 |
|
80 |
|
8 |
|
6 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
98 |
|
30 |
|
34 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 58 |
|
33 |
|
15 |
|
3 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 92 |
|
96 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Medifast has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Medifast is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Medifast.Leverage is at 100, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 93, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 93% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 95 (better than 95% compared with alternatives), Medifast has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Medifast more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 72 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 26 |
|
35 |
|
61 |
|
93 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 69 |
|
94 |
|
94 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 54 |
|
84 |
|
98 |
|
95 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
91 |
|
22 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
70 |
|
24 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
84 |
|
27 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
94 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Medifast from December 19, 2024.
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