Fact based stock research
Mercari (TSE:4385)
JP3921290007
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Mercari stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with investment alternatives), Mercari (Internet Retail, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mercari are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 65) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 52, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 35, is a hold recommendation based on Mercari's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Mercari exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 65). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 52) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | Japan |
| Industry | Internet Retail |
| Index | |
| Size class | Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Mercari
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 3 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
69 |
|
57 |
|
65 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
24 |
|
44 |
|
52 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
28 |
|
21 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
8 |
|
6 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 35 (worse than 65% compared with investment alternatives), Mercari (Internet Retail, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mercari are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 65) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 52, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 35, is a hold recommendation based on Mercari's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Mercari exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 17), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 65). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 52) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 3 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 97 |
|
69 |
|
57 |
|
65 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 3 |
|
24 |
|
44 |
|
52 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 14 |
|
10 |
|
8 |
|
35 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Mercari shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Mercari. Price-to-Sales is 31 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 69% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Mercari's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 25, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Mercari. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 44 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 86% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Mercari's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Mercari? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Mercari? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Mercari may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 28 |
|
5 |
|
15 |
|
31 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 18 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
44 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 8 |
|
7 |
|
14 |
|
25 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
14 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 3 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
17 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), Mercari shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Mercari. Sales Growth has a value of 78 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 78% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a value of 62 and Capital Growth with a rank of 72 means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow both profits and invested capital more than of its competitors. But Stock Returns has only a rank of 11, which means that stock returns have recently been below 89% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 65, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Mercari has only one below-average growth indicator, the stock returns. This is probably the least reliable growth indicator, because it measures company and investor expectations at the same time. The three other growth indicators, which are all positive for Mercari, are more reliable measures of growth momentum. For this reason, the company seems to be on a good trajectory, unless you think the current period is not representative, because of unique events that will not be repeated in the future. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 76 |
|
89 |
|
29 |
|
78 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
4 |
|
45 |
|
62 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
82 |
|
88 |
|
72 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 67 |
|
33 |
|
35 |
|
11 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 97 |
|
69 |
|
57 |
|
65 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), the company Mercari has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Mercari is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Mercari. Refinancing is at 82, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 82% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 65, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 65% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 9, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 91% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), Mercari has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Mercari could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Mercari and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 45 |
|
12 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 14 |
|
54 |
|
66 |
|
82 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 3 |
|
42 |
|
75 |
|
65 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 3 |
|
24 |
|
44 |
|
52 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
81 |
|
68 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
75 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
12 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
3 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
28 |
|
21 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Mercari from December 19, 2024.
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