Fact based stock research
Mesa Air Group (NasdaqGS:MESA)
US5904791358
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
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Mesa Air Group stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Mesa Air Group (Airlines, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mesa Air Group are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 40), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 6), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation based on Mesa Air Group's financial characteristics. As the company Mesa Air Group's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 72) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 40) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 6), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 72% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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Country | USA |
Industry | Airlines |
Index | NASDAQ |
Size class | Medium |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Mesa Air Group
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 88 |
|
73 |
|
72 |
|
72 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 41 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
40 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 10 |
|
17 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
SENTIMENT | ||||||||
SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
new | |
360° VIEW | ||||||||
360° VIEW | n/a |
|
4 |
|
1 |
|
new |
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 20 (worse than 80% compared with investment alternatives), Mesa Air Group (Airlines, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mesa Air Group are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 40), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 6), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 20, is a sell recommendation based on Mesa Air Group's financial characteristics. As the company Mesa Air Group's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 72) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 40) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 6), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 72% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VALUE | ||||||||
VALUE | 88 |
|
73 |
|
72 |
|
72 |
|
GROWTH | ||||||||
GROWTH | 41 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
40 |
|
SAFETY | ||||||||
SAFETY | 10 |
|
17 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
COMBINED | ||||||||
COMBINED | 41 |
|
8 |
|
4 |
|
20 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 72 (better than 72% compared with alternatives), Mesa Air Group shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Mesa Air Group. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 95, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 95% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding Mesa Air Group's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 93% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 89. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than Mesa Air Group (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 72, is a buy recommendation based on Mesa Air Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 94 |
|
91 |
|
97 |
|
95 |
|
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 98 |
|
50 |
|
93 |
|
93 |
|
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 92 |
|
95 |
|
93 |
|
89 |
|
DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 88 |
|
73 |
|
72 |
|
72 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 40 (better than 40% compared with alternatives), Mesa Air Group shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Mesa Air Group. Profit Growth has a rank of 52, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 52% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 84 (above 84% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 43, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 57% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 4. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Mesa Air Group. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
REVENUE GROWTH | 29 |
|
40 |
|
11 |
|
43 |
|
PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
52 |
|
CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
5 |
|
3 |
|
4 |
|
STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
STOCK RETURNS | 94 |
|
17 |
|
27 |
|
84 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 41 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
40 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 6 (better than 6% compared with alternatives), the company Mesa Air Group has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Mesa Air Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Mesa Air Group. Liquidity is at 10, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 15, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 85% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 6 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 94% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 6 (worse than 94% compared with alternatives), Mesa Air Group has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Mesa Air Group because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LEVERAGE | ||||||||
LEVERAGE | 10 |
|
42 |
|
22 |
|
15 |
|
REFINANCING | ||||||||
REFINANCING | 10 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
LIQUIDITY | 21 |
|
37 |
|
16 |
|
10 |
|
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 10 |
|
17 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
24 |
|
25 |
|
new | |
OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
3 |
|
50 |
|
new | |
PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
43 |
|
1 |
|
new | |
MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
new | |
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
new |
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Mesa Air Group from December 19, 2024.
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