Fact based stock research
Mesa Air Group (NasdaqGS:MESA)

US5904791358

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Mesa Air Group stock research in summary

mesa-air.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 23 (worse than 77% compared with investment alternatives), Mesa Air Group (Airlines, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Mesa Air Group are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 73 (better than 73% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 4), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 23, is a sell recommendation based on Mesa Air Group's financial characteristics. As the company Mesa Air Group's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 73) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 4), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 73% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	73
Growth Rank	45
Safety Rank	4
Combined Rank	23

Country	USA
Industry	Airlines
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	Medium

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Mesa Air Group

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	88	73	72	73
GROWTH
GROWTH	41	1	1	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	10	17	6	4
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	3	1	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	4	1	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Mar-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Mesa Air Group is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	88	73	72	73
GROWTH
GROWTH	41	1	1	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	10	17	6	4
COMBINED
COMBINED	41	8	4	23

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Mesa Air Group the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), Mesa Air Group shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Mesa Air Group. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 96, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 96% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding Mesa Air Group's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 93% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 92. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than Mesa Air Group (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 73, is a buy recommendation based on Mesa Air Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	94	91	97	96
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	98	50	93	93
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	92	95	93	92
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	88	73	72	73

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Mesa Air Group; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), Mesa Air Group shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Mesa Air Group. Profit Growth has a rank of 55, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 55% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 95 (above 95% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 43, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 57% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 3. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Mesa Air Group. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	29	40	11	43
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	1	1	55
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	5	3	3
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	94	17	27	95
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	41	1	1	45

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Mesa Air Group.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 4 (better than 4% compared with alternatives), the company Mesa Air Group has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Mesa Air Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Mesa Air Group. Liquidity is at 10, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 90% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 14, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 86% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 4 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 96% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), Mesa Air Group has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Mesa Air Group because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	10	42	22	14
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	10	3	1	4
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	21	37	16	10
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	10	17	6	4

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Mesa Air Group and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	24	25	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	3	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	43	1	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	1	3	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	3	1	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Mesa Air Group.
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