Fact based stock research
Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA)

US6267551025

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Murphy USA stock research in summary

murphyusa.commurphyusa

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Murphy USA (Automotive Retail, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Murphy USA are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 38, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 51). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation based on Murphy USA's financial characteristics. As the company Murphy USA shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (51% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 51% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 51). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 38 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Murphy USA, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	49
Growth Rank	51
Safety Rank	38
Combined Rank	51

Country	USA
Industry	Automotive Retail
Index	S&P MIDCAP
Size class	XX-Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Murphy USA

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	73	56	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	62	53	67	51
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	34	24	38
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	65	69	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	67	67	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Murphy USA is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	73	56	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	62	53	67	51
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	34	24	38
COMBINED
COMBINED	26	64	45	51

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Murphy USA the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Murphy USA shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Murphy USA. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 70% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 48 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 52% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Murphy USA's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 42 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 58% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 11 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 89% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Murphy USA's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Murphy USA? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Murphy USA only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	72	84	64	48
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	56	38	59	42
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	18	31	16	11
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	43	70	71	70
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	42	73	56	49

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Murphy USA; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Murphy USA shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Murphy USA. Sales Growth has a rank of 54 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 54% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 75. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 32, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 68% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 46, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 75% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	79	83	37	54
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	76	8	45	46
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	40	61	32
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	63	79	83	75
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	62	53	67	51

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Murphy USA.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 38 (better than 38% compared with alternatives), the company Murphy USA has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Murphy USA is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Murphy USA. Liquidity is at 73, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 26, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 74% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 28, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 72% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with alternatives), Murphy USA has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	44	29	17	28
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	17	24	24	26
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	65	73	65	73
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	29	34	24	38

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Murphy USA and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	18	33	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	83	72	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	43	58	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	70	68	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	65	69	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Murphy USA.
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