Fact based stock research
Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA)

US6267551025

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Murphy USA stock research in summary

murphyusa.commurphyusa

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Murphy USA (Automotive Retail, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Murphy USA are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 38, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 55). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 54, is a buy recommendation based on Murphy USA's financial characteristics. As the company Murphy USA shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (51% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 55% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 55). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 38 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Murphy USA, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	49
Growth Rank	55
Safety Rank	38
Combined Rank	54

Country	USA
Industry	Automotive Retail
Index	S&P MIDCAP
Size class	XX-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Murphy USA

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	73	56	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	62	53	67	55
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	34	24	38
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	65	69	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	67	67	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Murphy USA is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	42	73	56	49
GROWTH
GROWTH	62	53	67	55
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	34	24	38
COMBINED
COMBINED	26	64	45	54

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Murphy USA the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Murphy USA shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Murphy USA. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 57 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 57% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Murphy USA's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 12, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 12% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 52% of alternatives (only 48% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 30% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Murphy USA's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	72	84	64	48
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	56	38	59	57
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	18	31	16	12
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	43	70	71	70
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	42	73	56	49

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Murphy USA; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Murphy USA shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Murphy USA. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 42, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 58% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 46, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 37. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 63% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 87, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 87% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Murphy USA, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	79	83	37	42
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	76	8	45	37
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	40	61	46
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	63	79	83	87
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	62	53	67	55

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Murphy USA.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 38 (better than 38% compared with alternatives), the company Murphy USA has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Murphy USA is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Murphy USA. Liquidity is at 73, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 73% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 24, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 76% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 28, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 72% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with alternatives), Murphy USA has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	44	29	17	28
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	17	24	24	24
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	65	73	65	73
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	29	34	24	38

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Murphy USA and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	18	33	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	83	72	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	43	58	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	70	68	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	65	69	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Murphy USA.
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