Fact based stock research
NAGAWA (TSE:9663)

JP3648700007

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

NAGAWA stock research in summary

nagawa.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 26 (worse than 74% compared with investment alternatives), NAGAWA (Homebuilding, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of NAGAWA are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 28, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 67). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 26, is a hold recommendation based on NAGAWA's financial characteristics. As the company NAGAWA shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 9 (91% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 67% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 67). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 28 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for NAGAWA, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	9
Growth Rank	67
Safety Rank	28
Combined Rank	26

Country	Japan
Industry	Homebuilding
Index
Size class	Small

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: NAGAWA

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	8	3	9	9
GROWTH
GROWTH	38	63	15	67
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	100	100	28
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	20	11	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	14	14	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better NAGAWA is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	8	3	9	9
GROWTH
GROWTH	38	63	15	67
SAFETY
SAFETY	89	100	100	28
COMBINED
COMBINED	48	50	50	26

Last update of combined financial performance: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of NAGAWA the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with alternatives), NAGAWA shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for NAGAWA. Price-to-Sales is 12 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 88% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning NAGAWA's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 44, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of NAGAWA. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 20 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 83% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on NAGAWA's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for NAGAWA? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as NAGAWA? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. NAGAWA may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	10	1	10	12
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	31	11	10	20
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	22	26	40	44
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	27	11	13	17
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	8	3	9	9

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of NAGAWA; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), NAGAWA shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for NAGAWA. Sales Growth has a value of 55 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 55% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a value of 65 and Capital Growth with a rank of 91 means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow both profits and invested capital more than of its competitors. But Stock Returns has only a rank of 29, which means that stock returns have recently been below 71% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. NAGAWA has only one below-average growth indicator, the stock returns. This is probably the least reliable growth indicator, because it measures company and investor expectations at the same time. The three other growth indicators, which are all positive for NAGAWA, are more reliable measures of growth momentum. For this reason, the company seems to be on a good trajectory, unless you think the current period is not representative, because of unique events that will not be repeated in the future. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	17	57	17	55
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	80	34	65
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	39	55	91
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	71	41	31	29
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	38	63	15	67

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of NAGAWA.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 28 (better than 28% compared with alternatives), the company NAGAWA has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of NAGAWA is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for NAGAWA and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 100 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 25, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 1, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 99% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 28 (worse than 72% compared with alternatives), NAGAWA has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of NAGAWA are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with NAGAWA and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	61	96	100	100
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	47	29	25	25
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	96	89	89	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	89	100	100	28

Last update of Safety Rank: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of NAGAWA and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	n/a	n/a	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	46	8	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	18	24	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	20	11	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for NAGAWA.
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