Fact based stock research
National CineMedia (NasdaqGS:NCMI)
US6353091076
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
National CineMedia stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with investment alternatives), National CineMedia (Advertising, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National CineMedia are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 31 (worse than 69% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 70, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 62, is a buy recommendation based on National CineMedia's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company National CineMedia exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 31), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 73). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 70) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Advertising |
| Index | NASDAQ |
| Size class | Small |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: National CineMedia
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 85 |
|
99 |
|
74 |
|
31 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 6 |
|
75 |
|
79 |
|
73 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 10 |
|
30 |
|
12 |
|
70 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
14 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
43 |
|
39 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with investment alternatives), National CineMedia (Advertising, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of National CineMedia are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 31 (worse than 69% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 73) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 70, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 62, is a buy recommendation based on National CineMedia's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company National CineMedia exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 31), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 73). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 70) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 85 |
|
99 |
|
74 |
|
31 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 6 |
|
75 |
|
79 |
|
73 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 10 |
|
30 |
|
12 |
|
70 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 13 |
|
86 |
|
55 |
|
62 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 31 (worse than 69% compared with alternatives), National CineMedia shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for National CineMedia. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 70, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 70% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 49 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 51% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning National CineMedia's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 70 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 31, is a hold recommendation based on National CineMedia's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for National CineMedia, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 45 |
|
88 |
|
53 |
|
49 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 31 |
|
50 |
|
100 |
|
23 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 93 |
|
97 |
|
83 |
|
70 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 98 |
|
100 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 85 |
|
99 |
|
74 |
|
31 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), National CineMedia shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for National CineMedia. Sales Growth has a rank of 81 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 81% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 70, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 85, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 12, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 88% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 73, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 6 |
|
100 |
|
26 |
|
81 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 56 |
|
49 |
|
74 |
|
70 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
72 |
|
81 |
|
12 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 64 |
|
35 |
|
67 |
|
85 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 6 |
|
75 |
|
79 |
|
73 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), the company National CineMedia has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of National CineMedia is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for National CineMedia.Leverage is at 83, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 83% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 70, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 70% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 25, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 75% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), National CineMedia has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for National CineMedia more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
83 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 42 |
|
86 |
|
58 |
|
70 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 41 |
|
29 |
|
32 |
|
25 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 10 |
|
30 |
|
12 |
|
70 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
61 |
|
27 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
13 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
23 |
|
26 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
14 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for National CineMedia from December 19, 2024.
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