Fact based stock research
Obayashi (TSE:1802)

JP3190000004

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Obayashi stock research in summary

obayashi.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with investment alternatives), Obayashi (Construction & Engineering, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Obayashi are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation based on Obayashi's financial characteristics. As the company Obayashi's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 29) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	29
Growth Rank	47
Safety Rank	65
Combined Rank	32

Country	Japan
Industry	Construction & Engineering
Index	Nikkei 225
Size class	XX-Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Obayashi

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	93	84	39	29
GROWTH
GROWTH	12	1	45	47
SAFETY
SAFETY	66	88	68	65
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	29	5	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	47	24	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Obayashi is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	93	84	39	29
GROWTH
GROWTH	12	1	45	47
SAFETY
SAFETY	66	88	68	65
COMBINED
COMBINED	63	69	54	32

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Obayashi the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), Obayashi shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Obayashi. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 85% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 41 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 59% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Obayashi's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 30 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 70% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 38 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 62% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 29, is a hold recommendation based on Obayashi's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Obayashi? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Obayashi only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	79	70	55	41
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	86	63	36	30
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	92	88	64	38
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	82	83	74	85
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	93	84	39	29

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Obayashi; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), Obayashi shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Obayashi. Profit Growth has a rank of 53, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 53% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 87 (above 87% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 10, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 90% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 32. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Obayashi. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	12	8	28	10
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	64	4	19	53
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	26	65	32
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	58	37	61	87
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	12	1	45	47

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Obayashi.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), the company Obayashi has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Obayashi is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Obayashi. Leverage is at a rank of 68, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 68% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 70, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 70% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 31, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 69% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), Obayashi has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Obayashi. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Obayashi and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	54	71	64	68
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	44	57	49	31
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	80	82	72	70
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	66	88	68	65

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Obayashi and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	18	1	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	20	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	48	14	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	53	40	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	29	5	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Obayashi.
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