Fact based stock research
Ocular Therapeutix (NasdaqGM:OCUL)

US67576A1007

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Ocular Therapeutix stock research in summary

ocutx.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Ocular Therapeutix (Pharmaceuticals, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ocular Therapeutix are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 49), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 43), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 18, is a sell recommendation based on Ocular Therapeutix's financial characteristics. As the company Ocular Therapeutix's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 14), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 49), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 43), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	14
Growth Rank	49
Safety Rank	43
Combined Rank	18

Country	USA
Industry	Pharmaceuticals
Index	NASDAQ
Size class	X-Small

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Ocular Therapeutix

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	5	35	16	14
GROWTH
GROWTH	71	93	95	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	38	45	10	43
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	73	63	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	83	25	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Ocular Therapeutix is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	5	35	16	14
GROWTH
GROWTH	71	93	95	49
SAFETY
SAFETY	38	45	10	43
COMBINED
COMBINED	25	70	25	18

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Ocular Therapeutix the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with alternatives), Ocular Therapeutix shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Ocular Therapeutix. Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Ocular Therapeutix's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 30, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Ocular Therapeutix. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 30 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Ocular Therapeutix's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Ocular Therapeutix? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Ocular Therapeutix? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Ocular Therapeutix may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	36	46	34	11
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	17	30	30	30
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	27	20	5	30
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	5	35	16	14

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Ocular Therapeutix; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), Ocular Therapeutix shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Ocular Therapeutix. Sales Growth has a rank of 56 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 56% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 95. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 25, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 75% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 6, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 95% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	91	89	76	56
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	10	88	39	6
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	83	85	25
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	70	15	87	95
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	71	93	95	49

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Ocular Therapeutix.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 43 (better than 43% compared with alternatives), the company Ocular Therapeutix has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Ocular Therapeutix is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Ocular Therapeutix and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 61, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 61% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 38, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 30, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 70% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 43 (worse than 57% compared with alternatives), Ocular Therapeutix has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Ocular Therapeutix are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Ocular Therapeutix and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	64	41	17	38
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	64	71	51	61
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	18	24	30	30
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	38	45	10	43

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Ocular Therapeutix and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	53	76	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	91	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	49	60	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	28	24	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	73	63	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Ocular Therapeutix.
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