Fact based stock research
Old National Bancorp (NasdaqGS:ONB)

US6800331075

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

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Old National Bancorp stock research in summary

ir.oldnational.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 22 (worse than 78% compared with investment alternatives), Old National Bancorp (Regional Banks, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Old National Bancorp are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 70 (better than 70% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 41), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 10), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 22, is a sell recommendation based on Old National Bancorp's financial characteristics. As the company Old National Bancorp's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 70) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 41) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 10), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 70% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	70
Growth Rank	41
Safety Rank	10
Combined Rank	22

Country	USA
Industry	Regional Banks
Index	Diversity USA, Sound Pay USA, NASDAQ, D.J. US Banks
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Old National Bancorp

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	81	91	82	70
GROWTH
GROWTH	1	54	99	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	31	9	8	10
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	44	94	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	63	94	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Old National Bancorp is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	81	91	82	70
GROWTH
GROWTH	1	54	99	41
SAFETY
SAFETY	31	9	8	10
COMBINED
COMBINED	26	58	84	22

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Old National Bancorp the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 70 (better than 70% compared with alternatives), Old National Bancorp shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Old National Bancorp. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 81 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 81% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Old National Bancorp's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 69, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 69% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 51% of alternatives (only 49% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 67% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 70, is a buy recommendation based on Old National Bancorp's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	58	93	62	49
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	67	70	89	81
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	84	80	71	69
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	65	43	40	33
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	81	91	82	70

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Old National Bancorp; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), Old National Bancorp shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Old National Bancorp. Capital Growth has a rank of 53, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 44% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 57 (above 57% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 37, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 63% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 44. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Old National Bancorp, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	2	96	77	37
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	48	46	83	44
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	26	99	53
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	12	23	57	57
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	1	54	99	41

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Old National Bancorp.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 10 (better than 10% compared with alternatives), the company Old National Bancorp has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Old National Bancorp is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Old National Bancorp. Liquidity is at 22, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 43, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 57% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 28 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 72% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 10 (worse than 90% compared with alternatives), Old National Bancorp has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Old National Bancorp because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	8	22	43	43
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	94	8	28	28
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	8	66	14	22
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	31	9	8	10

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Old National Bancorp and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	35	66	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	26	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	28	88	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	78	73	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	44	94	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Old National Bancorp.
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