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Ollie's Bargain Outlet (NasdaqGM:OLLI)

US6811161099

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Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet stock research in summary

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ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with investment alternatives), Ollie's Bargain Outlet (General Merchandise Stores, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Ollie's Bargain Outlet are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 63, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 73, is a buy recommendation based on Ollie's Bargain Outlet's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Ollie's Bargain Outlet exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 13), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 63) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	13
Growth Rank	59
Safety Rank	63
Combined Rank	73

Country	USA
Industry	General Merchandise Stores
Index	NASDAQ, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

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Research History: Ollie's Bargain Outlet

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	33	35	16	13
GROWTH
GROWTH	24	49	87	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	98	87	87	63
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	35	94	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	35	61	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 3-Aug-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Ollie's Bargain Outlet is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	33	35	16	13
GROWTH
GROWTH	24	49	87	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	98	87	87	63
COMBINED
COMBINED	62	17	17	73

Last update of combined financial performance: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Ollie's Bargain Outlet the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with alternatives), Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Ollie's Bargain Outlet. Price-to-Sales is 9 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 91% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Ollie's Bargain Outlet's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 38, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Ollie's Bargain Outlet. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 34 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Ollie's Bargain Outlet? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Ollie's Bargain Outlet? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Ollie's Bargain Outlet may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	37	26	11	9
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	76	38	33	34
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	39	76	50	38
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	33	35	16	13

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Ollie's Bargain Outlet; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Ollie's Bargain Outlet shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Ollie's Bargain Outlet. Sales Growth has a rank of 98 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 98% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 73, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 57, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 99% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	49	83	96	98
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	77	8	90	73
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	91	6	1
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	29	5	93	57
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	24	49	87	59

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Ollie's Bargain Outlet.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), the company Ollie's Bargain Outlet has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Ollie's Bargain Outlet is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Ollie's Bargain Outlet.Leverage is at 78, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 78% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 57, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 22, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Ollie's Bargain Outlet has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Ollie's Bargain Outlet more challenging. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	81	85	83	78
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	58	67	53	57
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	82	95	95	22
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	98	87	87	63

Last update of Safety Rank: 4-Jul-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Ollie's Bargain Outlet and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	22	52	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	21	100	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	49	78	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	84	97	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	35	94	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Ollie's Bargain Outlet.
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