Fact based stock research
Oriental Land (TSE:4661)

JP3198900007

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Oriental Land stock research in summary

olc.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), Oriental Land (Leisure Facilities, Japan) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Oriental Land are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 73), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Oriental Land's financial characteristics. As the company Oriental Land's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 13) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 73) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	13
Growth Rank	19
Safety Rank	73
Combined Rank	14

Country	Japan
Industry	Leisure Facilities
Index	TOPIX 100
Size class	Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Oriental Land

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	4	5	1	13
GROWTH
GROWTH	15	89	75	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	52	37	72	73
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	23	76	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	25	59	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Oriental Land is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	4	5	1	13
GROWTH
GROWTH	15	89	75	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	52	37	72	73
COMBINED
COMBINED	4	35	45	14

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Oriental Land the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with alternatives), Oriental Land shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Oriental Land. Price-to-Sales is 1 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 99% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Oriental Land's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 20, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Oriental Land. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 15 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 52% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on Oriental Land's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Oriental Land? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Oriental Land? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Oriental Land may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	4	1	1	1
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	1	8	5	15
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	10	18	10	20
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	65	19	19	48
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	4	5	1	13

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Oriental Land; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), Oriental Land shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Oriental Land. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 71, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 24% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 30 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 70% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 24 and Stock Returns with a rank of 23 are also low (below 77% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Oriental Land is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	11	93	90	30
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	64	63	52	24
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	82	25	71
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	55	65	89	23
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	15	89	75	19

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Oriental Land.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), the company Oriental Land has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Oriental Land is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Oriental Land. Leverage is at a rank of 59, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 59% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 94, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 94% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 31, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 69% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), Oriental Land has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Oriental Land. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Oriental Land and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	55	70	64	59
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	73	37	33	31
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	22	6	96	94
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	52	37	72	73

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Oriental Land and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	77	44	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	26	57	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	14	90	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	31	68	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	23	76	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Oriental Land.
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