Fact based stock research
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG)

AU000000ORG5

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Origin Energy stock research in summary

originenergy.com.au

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy (Electric Utilities, Australia) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Origin Energy are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 55 (better than 55% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 55), and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 54), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 50, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's financial characteristics. As the company Origin Energy's key financial metrics all exhibit excellent performance, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 55), above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 55), and indicate that the company is safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 54), it is a solid stock investment where the risk of paying too much for the share is limited, unless the company has a bleak future. Such good financial performance can indicate that the company's future might actually be challenging, as it may be difficult to maintain the good performance. If they are safely financed and have been growing above average, and are still a good value, it means that the market is keeping prices low, for a reason which may become clearer over time. We recommend evaluating the future of Origin Energy. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	55
Growth Rank	55
Safety Rank	54
Combined Rank	50

Country	Australia
Industry	Electric Utilities
Index	ASX 100, ASX 200, ASX 300, ASX 50
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Origin Energy

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	85	53	67	55
GROWTH
GROWTH	10	83	87	55
SAFETY
SAFETY	13	26	38	54
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	68	62	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	71	88	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Origin Energy is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	85	53	67	55
GROWTH
GROWTH	10	83	87	55
SAFETY
SAFETY	13	26	38	54
COMBINED
COMBINED	18	59	84	50

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Origin Energy the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Origin Energy. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 52, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 52% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Origin Energy's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 58% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 74 (dividends are expected to be higher than 74% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 65% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Origin Energy to 35. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	89	57	66	52
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	4	40	66	58
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	84	59	40	35
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	62	59	86	74
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	85	53	67	55

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Origin Energy; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Origin Energy. Profit Growth has a rank of 68, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 68% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 57 (above 57% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 34, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 66% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 20. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Origin Energy. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	9	48	39	34
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	17	78	76	68
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	31	82	20
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	40	85	55	57
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	10	83	87	55

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Origin Energy.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), the company Origin Energy has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Origin Energy is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Origin Energy. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 51, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 51% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 54 (better than 54% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Origin Energy. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Origin Energy and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	61	68	70	66
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	8	17	35	45
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	10	14	24	51
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	13	26	38	54

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Origin Energy and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	63	61	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	65	74	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	47	33	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	68	62	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Origin Energy.
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