Fact based stock research
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG)

AU000000ORG5

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Origin Energy stock research in summary

originenergy.com.au

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy (Electric Utilities, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Origin Energy are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 38), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 41), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Origin Energy's financial characteristics. As the company Origin Energy's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 67) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 38) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 41), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 67% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	n/a
Growth Rank	n/a
Safety Rank	n/a
Combined Rank	n/a

Country	Australia
Industry	Electric Utilities
Index	ASX 100, ASX 200, ASX 300, ASX 50
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

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Research History: Origin Energy

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	85	53	67	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	10	83	87	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	13	26	38	n/a
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	68	62	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	71	88	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: . Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: . Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Origin Energy is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	85	53	67	n/a
GROWTH
GROWTH	10	83	87	n/a
SAFETY
SAFETY	13	26	38	n/a
COMBINED
COMBINED	18	59	84	n/a

Last update of combined financial performance: . Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Origin Energy the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 67 (better than 67% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Origin Energy. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 64, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 64% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Origin Energy's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 71% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 70 (dividends are expected to be higher than 70% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 62% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Origin Energy to 38. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 67, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	89	57	66	n/a
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	4	40	66	n/a
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	84	59	40	n/a
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	62	59	86	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	85	53	67	n/a

Last update of Value Rank: . Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Origin Energy; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 38 (better than 38% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Origin Energy. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 65, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 65% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 41, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 59% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 18 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 47 (53% of alternative investments were better). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 38, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	9	48	39	n/a
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	17	78	76	n/a
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	31	82	n/a
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	40	85	55	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	10	83	87	n/a

Last update of Growth Rank: . Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Origin Energy.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 41 (better than 41% compared with alternatives), the company Origin Energy has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Origin Energy is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Origin Energy and the other two below average. Leverage is at a rank of 68 meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 68% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 38, which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 62% of its competitors. Liquidity is at a rank of 26, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 74% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is an indication that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. There is only below-market average liquidity, and a short-term refinancing issue might be around the corner. But in the long-term, the debt levels of Origin Energy are on the safer side. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge and liquidity issues with Origin Energy and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	61	68	70	n/a
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	8	17	35	n/a
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	10	14	24	n/a
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	13	26	38	n/a

Last update of Safety Rank: . Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Origin Energy and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	63	61	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	65	74	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	47	33	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	68	62	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: . Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Origin Energy.
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