Fact based stock research
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG)
AU000000ORG5
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Origin Energy stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy (Electric Utilities, Australia) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Origin Energy are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 50, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Origin Energy exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 61). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 50) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° ViewnewThis stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Origin Energy
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 85 |
|
53 |
|
67 |
|
49 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 10 |
|
83 |
|
87 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 13 |
|
26 |
|
38 |
|
50 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
68 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
71 |
|
88 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with investment alternatives), Origin Energy (Electric Utilities, Australia) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Origin Energy are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 61) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 50, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on Origin Energy's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Origin Energy exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 49), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 61). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 50) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 85 |
|
53 |
|
67 |
|
49 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 10 |
|
83 |
|
87 |
|
61 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 13 |
|
26 |
|
38 |
|
50 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 18 |
|
59 |
|
84 |
|
52 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Origin Energy. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 50, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 50% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Origin Energy's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 53% of alternatives. It is also positive for expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 67 (dividends are expected to be higher than 67% of other stocks). But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is higher than average, making the stock more expensive. Only 72% of all competitors have an even higher price compared with book capital which puts the Price-to-Capital Rank for Origin Energy to 28. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Origin Energy's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. A low level of book capital means that the company has a business that is leaner in assets than its competitors. For instance, the company could be leasing its production facilities or be more focussed on intellectual property, such as its brand and software, which is less visible in its book capital. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Profits, and Dividends are reliable indicators for the stock price value. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 89 |
|
57 |
|
66 |
|
50 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 4 |
|
40 |
|
66 |
|
53 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 84 |
|
59 |
|
40 |
|
28 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 62 |
|
59 |
|
86 |
|
67 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 85 |
|
53 |
|
67 |
|
49 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Origin Energy. Profit Growth has a rank of 70, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 70% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 87 (above 87% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 34, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 66% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 10. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Origin Energy. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 9 |
|
48 |
|
39 |
|
34 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 17 |
|
78 |
|
76 |
|
70 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
31 |
|
82 |
|
10 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 40 |
|
85 |
|
55 |
|
87 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 10 |
|
83 |
|
87 |
|
61 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with alternatives), the company Origin Energy has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Origin Energy is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Origin Energy. Leverage is at a rank of 66, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 66% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 50, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 50% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 50 (better than 50% compared with alternatives), Origin Energy has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Origin Energy. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Origin Energy and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 61 |
|
68 |
|
70 |
|
66 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 8 |
|
17 |
|
35 |
|
45 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 10 |
|
14 |
|
24 |
|
50 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 13 |
|
26 |
|
38 |
|
50 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
63 |
|
61 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
65 |
|
74 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
47 |
|
33 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
68 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Origin Energy from December 19, 2024.
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