Fact based stock research
Otsukas (TSE:4578)

JP3188220002

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Otsukas stock research in summary

otsuka.comjp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with investment alternatives), Otsukas (Pharmaceuticals, Japan) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Otsukas are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 36 (worse than 64% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 64) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 65, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 65, is a buy recommendation based on Otsukas's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Otsukas exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 36), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 64). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 65) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	36
Growth Rank	64
Safety Rank	65
Combined Rank	65

Country	Japan
Industry	Pharmaceuticals
Index	TOPIX 100, Nikkei 225
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Otsukas

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	83	89	82	36
GROWTH
GROWTH	30	35	77	64
SAFETY
SAFETY	86	74	76	65
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	12	24	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	59	85	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Otsukas is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	83	89	82	36
GROWTH
GROWTH	30	35	77	64
SAFETY
SAFETY	86	74	76	65
COMBINED
COMBINED	83	78	100	65

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Otsukas the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 36 (worse than 64% compared with alternatives), Otsukas shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Otsukas. Only Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) indicates good stock value with a rank of 57, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 57% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Otsukas's profit levels. But Price-to-Sales is 45 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than for 55% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Otsukas's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 42 and for dividend yield, which is lower than for 55% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 36, is a hold recommendation based on Otsukas's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Can we rely on only one good value indicator? Only if we know the company well. In this case, a high Price-to-Profit Rank, while Price-to-Sales and Price-to-Book are both below the market typical levels, means that the company can charge higher prices for its products and needs less capital to produce them. If this is sustainable, then Otsukas is a good investment because profits count most in enterprise valuations. The low dividend yield indicates that the company is confident it can do something with the generated cash that is more valuable than paying the profits out to the shareholders in the form of dividends. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	67	78	72	45
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	71	86	88	57
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	88	78	64	42
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	76	70	64	45
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	83	89	82	36

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Otsukas; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 64 (better than 64% compared with alternatives), Otsukas shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Otsukas. Profit Growth has a rank of 89, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 89% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 94 (above 94% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 17, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 83% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 40. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 64, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Otsukas. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	25	21	28	17
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	67	47	76	89
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	54	62	40
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	67	59	75	94
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	30	35	77	64

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Otsukas.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), the company Otsukas has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Otsukas is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Otsukas. Leverage is at a rank of 65, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 65% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 76, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 38, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 62% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 65 (better than 65% compared with alternatives), Otsukas has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Otsukas. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Otsukas and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	76	60	67	65
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	43	63	61	38
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	100	65	65	76
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	86	74	76	65

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Otsukas and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	13	22	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	16	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	45	78	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	42	28	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	12	24	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Otsukas.
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