Fact based stock research
Papa John's (NasdaqGS:PZZA)

US6988131024

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Papa John's stock research in summary

papajohns.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 41 (worse than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Papa John's (Restaurants, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Papa John's are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 89 (better than 89% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 27), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 32), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 41, is a hold recommendation based on Papa John's's financial characteristics. As the company Papa John's's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 89) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 27) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 32), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 89% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	89
Growth Rank	27
Safety Rank	32
Combined Rank	41

Country	USA
Industry	Restaurants
Index	Dividends USA, SDG 12, SDG 17, SDG 2, SDG 5, SDG 8, NASDAQ, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Papa John's

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	74	81	80	89
GROWTH
GROWTH	81	51	17	27
SAFETY
SAFETY	82	54	34	32
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	66	71	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	77	44	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Papa John's is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	74	81	80	89
GROWTH
GROWTH	81	51	17	27
SAFETY
SAFETY	82	54	34	32
COMBINED
COMBINED	87	75	35	41

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Papa John's the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 89 (better than 89% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Papa John's shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where three out of four indicators are above average for Papa John's. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 60 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 60% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Papa John's's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 79. Finally, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Papa John's are expected to be higher than for 86% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 86). The only low rank is for expected profits with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 37, indicating that the market expects the company's profit to be low despite a high dividend. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 89, is a buy recommendation based on Papa John's's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The low Profit Rank could result from a one-off charge, for instance, for an accident, a legal settlement, or a restructuring project. If the company keeps its dividends high, the low expected profit may be transitory. If that is the case, the three good value ranks for Sales, Capital, and Dividends are reliable indicators for good stock price value, a low stock price. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	18	40	52	60
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	44	32	26	37
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	96	92	83	79
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	79	78	84	86
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	74	81	80	89

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Papa John's; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), Papa John's shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Papa John's. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 52, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 30% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 26 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 74% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 30 and Stock Returns with a rank of 25 are also low (below 75% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for Papa John's is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	74	27	45	26
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	23	71	17	30
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	38	62	52
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	77	71	21	25
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	81	51	17	27

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Papa John's.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 32 (better than 32% compared with alternatives), the company Papa John's has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Papa John's is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Papa John's. Refinancing is at 60, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 60% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 59, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 59% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 5, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 95% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with alternatives), Papa John's has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Papa John's could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Papa John's and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	75	22	4	5
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	58	39	61	60
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	76	90	65	59
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	82	54	34	32

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Papa John's and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	75	58	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	18	63	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	92	71	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	66	71	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Papa John's.
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