Fact based stock research
Paychex (NasdaqGS:PAYX)

US7043261079

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Paychex stock research in summary

paychex.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 32 (worse than 68% compared with investment alternatives), Paychex (Data Processing & Outsourcing, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Paychex are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 27) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 32, is a hold recommendation based on Paychex's financial characteristics. As the company Paychex's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 27) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 27), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	27
Growth Rank	27
Safety Rank	98
Combined Rank	32

Country	USA
Industry	Data Processing & Outsourcing
Index	Dividends USA, Employee Focus US, SDG 1, SDG 3, SDG 4, SDG 8, NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ, S&P 500
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Paychex

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	27	37	26	27
GROWTH
GROWTH	76	51	59	27
SAFETY
SAFETY	64	84	86	98
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	81	79	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	79	78	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Aug-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Paychex is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	27	37	26	27
GROWTH
GROWTH	76	51	59	27
SAFETY
SAFETY	64	84	86	98
COMBINED
COMBINED	64	61	52	32

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Paychex the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 27 (worse than 73% compared with alternatives), Paychex shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Paychex. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 95% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Paychex's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 28 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 72% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 12 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 88% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation based on Paychex's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Paychex? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Paychex only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	12	13	5	11
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	55	23	20	28
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	1	14	12	12
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	76	100	98	95
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	27	37	26	27

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Paychex; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 27 (better than 27% compared with alternatives), Paychex shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Paychex. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 37, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 63% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 34, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 29. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 71% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 59, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 59% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 27, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Paychex, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	36	25	38	37
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	17	44	64	29
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	44	44	34
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	76	95	59	59
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	76	51	59	27

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Paychex.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Paychex has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Paychex is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Paychex. Leverage is at a rank of 78, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 78% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 100, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 100% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 45, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives), Paychex has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Paychex. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Paychex and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	63	78	82	78
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	29	25	27	45
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	94	96	98	100
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	64	84	86	98

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Paychex and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	19	9	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	99	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	30	90	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	94	87	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	81	79	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Paychex.
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