Fact based stock research
Potbelly (NasdaqGS:PBPB)
US73754Y1001
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Potbelly stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Potbelly (Restaurants, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Potbelly are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 55) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 57, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Potbelly's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Potbelly exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 11), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 55). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 57) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Restaurants |
| Index | NASDAQ |
| Size class | Medium |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Potbelly
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 69 |
|
59 |
|
8 |
|
11 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 94 |
|
25 |
|
75 |
|
55 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
1 |
|
29 |
|
57 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
25 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
11 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Potbelly (Restaurants, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Potbelly are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 55) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 57, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Potbelly's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Potbelly exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 11), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 55). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 57) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 69 |
|
59 |
|
8 |
|
11 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 94 |
|
25 |
|
75 |
|
55 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 1 |
|
1 |
|
29 |
|
57 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 31 |
|
8 |
|
17 |
|
25 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 11 (worse than 89% compared with alternatives), Potbelly shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where the majority of metrics are below, and only one is above average for Potbelly. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 74, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than 74% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning to Potbelly's revenue size. But all other performance indicators point in a different direction. Dividend yields have a Dividend Yield rank of 1, meaning that dividends are expected to be lower than for 99% of comparable investments. Furthermore, Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) is less favorable than 74% of alternatives (only 26% of peers have an even higher ratio). The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (or Price / Earnings, P/E), which is higher than for 85% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 11, is a sell recommendation based on Potbelly's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since Price-to-Sales is a stable value indicator even in challenging times, investing in Potbelly could be seen as a value investment. However, there must be a good reason for the low market-to-book rank. If the company has a typical capital investment practice, the stock may be overvalued because the profit and dividend-related performance indicators are also low. The stock is only good value if investors can expect profits and dividends to pick up in the future. Else, Potbelly looks like an expensive investment today. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 88 |
|
95 |
|
73 |
|
74 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 25 |
|
1 |
|
10 |
|
15 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 100 |
|
100 |
|
5 |
|
26 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 69 |
|
59 |
|
8 |
|
11 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 55 (better than 55% compared with alternatives), Potbelly shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Potbelly. Profit Growth has a rank of 86, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 86% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 61 (above 61% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 43, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 57% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 9. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 55, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Potbelly. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 61 |
|
55 |
|
6 |
|
43 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 38 |
|
43 |
|
100 |
|
86 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
8 |
|
44 |
|
9 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 76 |
|
63 |
|
97 |
|
61 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 94 |
|
25 |
|
75 |
|
55 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), the company Potbelly has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Potbelly is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Potbelly. Leverage is at a rank of 64, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 64% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 59, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 59% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 43, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), Potbelly has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Potbelly. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Potbelly and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 4 |
|
46 |
|
52 |
|
64 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 4 |
|
8 |
|
49 |
|
43 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 11 |
|
4 |
|
23 |
|
59 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 1 |
|
1 |
|
29 |
|
57 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
6 |
|
23 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
99 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
49 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
16 |
|
48 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
25 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Potbelly from December 19, 2024.
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