Fact based stock research
Progressive (NYSE:PGR)

US7433151039

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Progressive stock research in summary

progressive.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with investment alternatives), Progressive (Property & Casualty Insurance, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Progressive are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 99) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 77, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 79, is a strong buy recommendation based on Progressive's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Progressive exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 13), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 99). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 77) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	13
Growth Rank	99
Safety Rank	77
Combined Rank	79

Country	USA
Industry	Property & Casualty Insurance
Index	Diversity USA, D.J. US Insurance, S&P 500
Size class	XX-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Progressive

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	33	15	14	13
GROWTH
GROWTH	24	59	89	99
SAFETY
SAFETY	48	77	77	77
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	19	86	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	7	45	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Progressive is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	33	15	14	13
GROWTH
GROWTH	24	59	89	99
SAFETY
SAFETY	48	77	77	77
COMBINED
COMBINED	24	79	79	79

Last update of combined financial performance: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Progressive the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 13 (worse than 87% compared with alternatives), Progressive shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Progressive. Price-to-Sales is 34 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 66% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Progressive's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 9, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Progressive. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 20 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 73% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 13, is a sell recommendation based on Progressive's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Progressive? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Progressive? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Progressive may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	33	44	40	34
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	30	17	16	20
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	14	9	5	9
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	86	23	24	27
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	33	15	14	13

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Progressive; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 99 (better than 99% compared with alternatives) for 2022, Progressive shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Progressive. Sales Growth has a value of 90, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 90% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 88 and for Capital Growth with 91. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 81, which means they have been higher than 81% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 99, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Progressive exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	50	72	87	90
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	56	6	70	88
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	83	69	91
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	31	49	67	81
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	24	59	89	99

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Progressive.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives) for 2022, the company Progressive has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Progressive is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Progressive. Leverage is at a rank of 56, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 56% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 79, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 79% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 8, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 92% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 77 (better than 77% compared with alternatives), Progressive has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Progressive. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Progressive and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	55	32	41	56
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	24	8	8	8
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	68	89	73	79
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	48	77	77	77

Last update of Safety Rank: 6-Oct-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Progressive and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	20	62	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	69	92	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	37	72	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	28	47	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	19	86	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Progressive.
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