Fact based stock research
ModivCare (NasdaqGS:PRSC)

US60783X1046

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

ModivCare stock research in summary

modivcare.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with investment alternatives), ModivCare (Health Care Services, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of ModivCare are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 1), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 16, is a sell recommendation based on ModivCare's financial characteristics. As the company ModivCare's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 93) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 1), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 93% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	93
Growth Rank	19
Safety Rank	1
Combined Rank	16

Country	USA
Industry	Health Care Services
Index	NASDAQ, D.J. US Health Care
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: ModivCare

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	12	52	76	93
GROWTH
GROWTH	83	63	3	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	6	9	1
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	77	34	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	47	4	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better ModivCare is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	12	52	76	93
GROWTH
GROWTH	83	63	3	19
SAFETY
SAFETY	29	6	9	1
COMBINED
COMBINED	33	26	1	16

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of ModivCare the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, ModivCare shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for ModivCare. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 95, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 95% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding ModivCare's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 100% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 90. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 1% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than ModivCare (a Dividend Yield Rank of 1). 99% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation based on ModivCare's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	69	69	91	95
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	29	47	100	100
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	14	37	25	90
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	12	52	76	93

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of ModivCare; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), ModivCare shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for ModivCare. Only Capital Growth has a good rank of 75, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 6% of its competitors. The other three indicators are pointing South: Sales Growth has a rank of 49 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 51% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 6 and Stock Returns with a rank of 5 are also low (below 95% of alternative investments). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. The good news from the invested capital side is surprising. A company with disappointing revenues, profits, and disappointed shareholders typically doesn't invest above average. Overall, the growth momentum for ModivCare is thus negative. As it is intriguing to see that company executives are optimistic about their investment policy, it is worthwhile looking into the details of the capital investment projects. They may indicate future growth and profits and thus if accompanied by a good value, a sign of good timing to invest in the stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	83	66	43	49
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	58	46	20	6
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	51	10	75
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	90	45	5	5
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	83	63	3	19

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of ModivCare.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), the company ModivCare has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of ModivCare is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for ModivCare. Liquidity is at 9, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 12, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 88% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 1 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 99% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), ModivCare has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of ModivCare because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	42	34	22	12
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	30	4	6	1
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	45	19	10	9
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	29	6	9	1

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of ModivCare and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	77	93	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	67	16	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	46	3	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	77	34	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for ModivCare.
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