Fact based stock research
Provident Services (NYSE:PFS)

US74386T1051

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Provident Services stock research in summary

provident.bank

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 46 (worse than 54% compared with investment alternatives), Provident Services (Thrifts & Mortgage Finance, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Provident Services are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 62 (better than 62% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 75) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 11), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 46, is a hold recommendation based on Provident Services's financial characteristics. As the company Provident Services's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 62) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 75), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 11) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	62
Growth Rank	75
Safety Rank	11
Combined Rank	46

Country	USA
Industry	Thrifts & Mortgage Finance
Index	Dividends USA, Sound Pay USA
Size class	XX-Large

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Provident Services

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	60	39	92	62
GROWTH
GROWTH	98	89	52	75
SAFETY
SAFETY	43	69	67	11
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	47	39	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	79	79	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Provident Services is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	60	39	92	62
GROWTH
GROWTH	98	89	52	75
SAFETY
SAFETY	43	69	67	11
COMBINED
COMBINED	86	87	90	46

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Provident Services the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 62 (better than 62% compared with alternatives), Provident Services shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Provident Services. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 84 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 84% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Provident Services's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 41, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 41% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 69% of alternatives (only 31% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 12% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 62, is a buy recommendation based on Provident Services's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	28	20	91	31
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	54	41	86	84
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	63	45	56	41
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	71	85	88	88
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	60	39	92	62

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Provident Services; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 75 (better than 75% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Provident Services shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Provident Services. Sales Growth has a rank of 86 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 86% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 54, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 65, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 47, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 53% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 75, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	91	51	100	86
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	40	67	34	54
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	79	45	47
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	85	71	27	65
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	98	89	52	75

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Provident Services.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 11 (better than 11% compared with alternatives), the company Provident Services has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Provident Services is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Provident Services. Liquidity is at 62, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 62% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 19, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 81% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 14, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 86% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 11 (worse than 89% compared with alternatives), Provident Services has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	29	72	78	14
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	50	58	10	19
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	55	48	79	62
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	43	69	67	11

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Provident Services and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	18	46	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	86	46	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	20	15	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	47	39	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Provident Services.
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