Fact based stock research
Radian Group (NYSE:RDN)

US7502361014

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Radian Group stock research in summary

radian.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with investment alternatives), Radian Group (Thrifts & Mortgage Finance, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Radian Group are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 39), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 34), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 38, is a hold recommendation based on Radian Group's financial characteristics. As the company Radian Group's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 47), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 39), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 34), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	47
Growth Rank	39
Safety Rank	34
Combined Rank	38

Country	USA
Industry	Thrifts & Mortgage Finance
Index	Employee Focus US, Diversity USA
Size class	Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Radian Group

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	62	67	53	47
GROWTH
GROWTH	42	27	77	39
SAFETY
SAFETY	43	49	61	34
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	17	72	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	25	80	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Radian Group is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	62	67	53	47
GROWTH
GROWTH	42	27	77	39
SAFETY
SAFETY	43	49	61	34
COMBINED
COMBINED	51	49	83	38

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Radian Group the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with alternatives), Radian Group shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Radian Group. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price to earnings, P/E ratio) is 71 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 71% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Radian Group's profit levels. The same is valid for the expected Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 64, and for Dividend Yield with a Dividend Yield Rank of 77. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the stock price is higher than average as regards expected revenues; only 88% of all competitors have an even higher stock price as regards to sales revenues (a Price-to-Sales Rank of 12). Profits, the level of invested capital, and dividend policy suggest that this stock is attractively priced. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Radian Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since it is on the expensive side for Price-to-Sales, it may mean that Radian Group has pricing power in its distribution market because it can charge higher prices than its competitors. If this is the case, all four value indicators are positive signals for purchasing Radian Group shares. 9. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	30	26	19	12
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	81	82	72	71
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	71	65	51	64
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	42	83	70	77
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	62	67	53	47

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Radian Group; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 39 (better than 39% compared with alternatives), Radian Group shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Radian Group. Capital Growth has a rank of 71, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 30% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 51 (above 51% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 16, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 84% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 30. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Radian Group, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	8	26	87	16
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	38	67	30	30
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	39	47	71
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	67	25	89	51
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	42	27	77	39

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Radian Group.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 34 (better than 34% compared with alternatives), the company Radian Group has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Radian Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above average for Radian Group. Leverage is at a rank of 52, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 52% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at a rank of 76, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 76% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the safer side when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is lower at a rank of 9, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above-average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 91% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 34 (worse than 66% compared with alternatives), Radian Group has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. The refinancing issues could be a short-term problem, especially if the company has reputation issues. Banks and investors don't like to refinance debt if there are clouds on the horizon. For this reason, investors should look at the refinancing environment for Radian Group. Does it look safe that debt that is coming due can be covered with new debt? If that is the case, then the financing situation of the company is on the safer side. If not, it may be better to wait until refinancing has been completed and the Refinancing rank is good again. Investors may have a short-term debt challenge with Radian Group and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	38	37	52	52
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	56	31	9	9
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	38	73	78	76
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	43	49	61	34

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Radian Group and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	65	43	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	35	82	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	21	92	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	6	7	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	17	72	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Radian Group.
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