Fact based stock research
Supernus Pharma (NasdaqGM:SUPN)

US8684591089

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Supernus Pharma stock research in summary

supernus.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 56 (better than 56% compared with investment alternatives), Supernus Pharma (Pharmaceuticals, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Supernus Pharma are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 45) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 98), which means low debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 56, is a buy recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's financial characteristics. As the company Supernus Pharma's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 21) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 45), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 98) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	21
Growth Rank	45
Safety Rank	98
Combined Rank	56

Country	USA
Industry	Pharmaceuticals
Index	Moonshot Tech, NASDAQ, D.J. US Pharmaceutical
Size class	Medium

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Supernus Pharma

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	59	37	29	21
GROWTH
GROWTH	47	77	49	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	73	96	75	98
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	80	32	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	96	32	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Supernus Pharma is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	59	37	29	21
GROWTH
GROWTH	47	77	49	45
SAFETY
SAFETY	73	96	75	98
COMBINED
COMBINED	67	89	52	56

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Supernus Pharma the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Supernus Pharma. Price-to-Sales is 38 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 62% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Supernus Pharma's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 42, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Supernus Pharma. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 45 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Supernus Pharma's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Supernus Pharma? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Supernus Pharma? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Supernus Pharma may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	62	64	37	38
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	75	71	50	45
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	61	1	44	42
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	59	37	29	21

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Supernus Pharma; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 45 (better than 45% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Supernus Pharma. Profit Growth has a rank of 58, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 58% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 67 (above 67% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 8, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 92% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 49. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 45, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Supernus Pharma. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	68	51	43	8
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	1	23	91	58
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	97	29	49
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	78	79	41	67
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	47	77	49	45

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Supernus Pharma.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Supernus Pharma has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Supernus Pharma is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Supernus Pharma. Leverage is at 100, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 100% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 55, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 55% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 78, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with alternatives), Supernus Pharma has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Supernus Pharma but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	94	62	53	100
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	22	53	43	55
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	68	84	84	78
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	73	96	75	98

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Supernus Pharma and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	57	48	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	96	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	22	45	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	56	33	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	80	32	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Supernus Pharma.
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