Fact based stock research
Synlait Milk (NZSE:SML)
NZSMLE0001S9
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Synlait Milk stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), Synlait Milk (Packaged Foods & Meats, New Zealand) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Synlait Milk are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 21), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 1), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Synlait Milk's financial characteristics. As the company Synlait Milk's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 21) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 1), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 63% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | New Zealand |
| Industry | Packaged Foods & Meats |
| Index | ASX 300, Low Emissions, Energy Efficient, Water Efficiency, NZSX 50 |
| Size class | Large |
This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Synlait Milk
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 39 |
|
47 |
|
76 |
|
63 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
|
7 |
|
71 |
|
21 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 22 |
|
13 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
5 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
1 |
|
26 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 7 (worse than 93% compared with investment alternatives), Synlait Milk (Packaged Foods & Meats, New Zealand) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Synlait Milk are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 21), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 1), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation based on Synlait Milk's financial characteristics. As the company Synlait Milk's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 21) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 1), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 63% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 39 |
|
47 |
|
76 |
|
63 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 5 |
|
7 |
|
71 |
|
21 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 22 |
|
13 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 11 |
|
1 |
|
50 |
|
7 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Synlait Milk shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, where half the indicators are below and half above average for Synlait Milk. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 100, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 100% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Synlait Milk's revenue size. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio), which is more favorable than for 100% of alternatives (0% of peers have a higher ratio). But expected dividend yields with a Dividend Yield rank of 6 are lower than average (dividends are expected to be lower than 94% of other stocks) while the Price to Profit ratio (or Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio) is higher than average with a Price-to-Profit Rank of 17, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected profit levels. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation based on Synlait Milk's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Low profits and low dividends as seen here for Synlait Milk may indicate a restructuring phase. This could be transitory, making the company a good value when profits recover and dividends return to higher levels. If the stock price is compared with the size indicators for revenue and invested capital, it is on the lower side, making this stock a good value investment (apart from current profit and dividend expectations). We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 80 |
|
63 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 9 |
|
60 |
|
93 |
|
17 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 90 |
|
83 |
|
100 |
|
100 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
6 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 39 |
|
47 |
|
76 |
|
63 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), Synlait Milk shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four metrics below average for Synlait Milk. While Profit Growth has a good rank of 84, as professionals currently expect the company to grow its profits more than 84% of its competitors, all other growth indicators are below market averages. Sales Growth has a rank of 8, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 92% of its competitors, while Capital Growth has a rank of 42 and Stock Returns have been below market median, with a rank of 1 (99% of alternative investments were better). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. While revenue growth and capital growth are good growth momentum indicators, profit is less reliable, because profits may increase due to cost-cutting measures which typically indicate negative growth momentum. "You can save a dollar only once" is the saying about such situations. Growth Investors should look at company priorities closely if they are interested in growth, because the increase in profits is not usually an indicator of growth, and stock prices have been below market, too. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is limited here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 34 |
|
16 |
|
67 |
|
8 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 35 |
|
94 |
|
100 |
|
84 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
10 |
|
76 |
|
42 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 6 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 5 |
|
7 |
|
71 |
|
21 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 1 (better than 1% compared with alternatives), the company Synlait Milk has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Synlait Milk is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Synlait Milk. Liquidity is at 7, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 93% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 12, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 88% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 1 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Synlait Milk has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Synlait Milk because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 22 |
|
26 |
|
30 |
|
12 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 80 |
|
37 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 27 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 22 |
|
13 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
25 |
|
27 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
4 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
63 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
34 |
|
46 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
5 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Synlait Milk from December 19, 2024.
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