Fact based stock research
The Carlyle Group (NasdaqGS:CG)
US14316J1088
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
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The Carlyle Group stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with investment alternatives), The Carlyle Group (Asset Management & Custody, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of The Carlyle Group are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 85) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 16), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on The Carlyle Group's financial characteristics. As the company The Carlyle Group's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 57) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 85), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 16) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: The Carlyle Group
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 65 |
|
48 |
|
56 |
|
57 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 94 |
|
93 |
|
87 |
|
85 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
45 |
|
22 |
|
16 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
32 |
|
27 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
58 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with investment alternatives), The Carlyle Group (Asset Management & Custody, USA) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of The Carlyle Group are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 85) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 16), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 52, is a buy recommendation based on The Carlyle Group's financial characteristics. As the company The Carlyle Group's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 57) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 85), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 16) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 65 |
|
48 |
|
56 |
|
57 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 94 |
|
93 |
|
87 |
|
85 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 6 |
|
45 |
|
22 |
|
16 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 61 |
|
76 |
|
51 |
|
52 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), The Carlyle Group shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for The Carlyle Group. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 67 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 67% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning The Carlyle Group's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 29, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 29% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 60% of alternatives (only 40% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 37% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation based on The Carlyle Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 81 |
|
34 |
|
42 |
|
40 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 94 |
|
62 |
|
74 |
|
67 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 20 |
|
25 |
|
27 |
|
29 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 43 |
|
83 |
|
71 |
|
63 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 65 |
|
48 |
|
56 |
|
57 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 85 (better than 85% compared with alternatives) for 2024, The Carlyle Group shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for The Carlyle Group. Sales Growth has a value of 94, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 94% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 54 and for Capital Growth with 82. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 71, which means they have been higher than 71% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 85, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, The Carlyle Group exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 94 |
|
8 |
|
96 |
|
94 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 7 |
|
98 |
|
10 |
|
54 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
83 |
|
86 |
|
82 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 90 |
|
90 |
|
85 |
|
71 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 94 |
|
93 |
|
87 |
|
85 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 16 (better than 16% compared with alternatives), the company The Carlyle Group has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of The Carlyle Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for The Carlyle Group and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 61, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 61% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 28, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 72% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 13, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 87% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 16 (worse than 84% compared with alternatives), The Carlyle Group has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for The Carlyle Group are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with The Carlyle Group and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 20 |
|
23 |
|
29 |
|
28 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 8 |
|
50 |
|
57 |
|
61 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 31 |
|
71 |
|
16 |
|
13 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 6 |
|
45 |
|
22 |
|
16 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
81 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
69 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
8 |
|
8 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
26 |
|
22 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
32 |
|
27 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for The Carlyle Group from November 14, 2024.
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