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The Carlyle Group (NasdaqGS:CG)

US14316J1088

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Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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The Carlyle Group stock research in summary

carlyle.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 38 (worse than 62% compared with investment alternatives), The Carlyle Group (Asset Management & Custody, USA) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of The Carlyle Group are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 61 (better than 61% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 15), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 38, is a hold recommendation based on The Carlyle Group's financial characteristics. As the company The Carlyle Group's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 61) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 15) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	61
Growth Rank	59
Safety Rank	15
Combined Rank	38

Country	USA
Industry	Asset Management & Custody
Index	Dividends USA, SDG 12, SDG 13, SDG 7, SDG 9, NASDAQ
Size class	Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Research History: The Carlyle Group

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	65	48	56	61
GROWTH
GROWTH	94	93	87	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	6	45	22	15
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	32	27	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	58	34	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better The Carlyle Group is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	65	48	56	61
GROWTH
GROWTH	94	93	87	59
SAFETY
SAFETY	6	45	22	15
COMBINED
COMBINED	61	76	51	38

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of The Carlyle Group the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 61 (better than 61% compared with alternatives), The Carlyle Group shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for The Carlyle Group. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 71 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 71% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning The Carlyle Group's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 41, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 41% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 60% of alternatives (only 40% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 35% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 61, is a buy recommendation based on The Carlyle Group's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	81	34	42	40
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	94	62	74	71
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	20	25	27	41
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	43	83	71	65
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	65	48	56	61

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of The Carlyle Group; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), The Carlyle Group shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for The Carlyle Group. Sales Growth has a rank of 94, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 94% of its competitors. Profit Growth with a rank of 56 is also above average. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 20, and Stock Returns with 43 are also below-average. Stock returns for The Carlyle Group have recently been below 57% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Are investors forecasting troubles based on the lack of operating investment activity at the company? This could be one explanation as to why stock returns are low. But stock returns can also be the result of correcting an error in the past, in this case, an overly optimistic outlook on the future, which is now more realistic. The Value Ranks may confirm such a picture. The more important growth indicators are revenues and profits, which are both above average for The Carlyle Group. This is a positive sign from the company's operational side and may give investors courage, despite the poor recent stock price performance. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with the Obermatt Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	94	8	96	94
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	7	98	10	56
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	83	86	20
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	90	90	85	43
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	94	93	87	59

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of The Carlyle Group.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 15 (better than 15% compared with alternatives), the company The Carlyle Group has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of The Carlyle Group is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for The Carlyle Group and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 57, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 57% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 27, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 73% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 13, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 87% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 15 (worse than 85% compared with alternatives), The Carlyle Group has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for The Carlyle Group are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with The Carlyle Group and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	20	23	29	27
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	8	50	57	57
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	31	71	16	13
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	6	45	22	15

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of The Carlyle Group and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	81	51	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	69	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	8	8	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	26	22	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	32	27	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for The Carlyle Group.
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