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The Duckhorn Portfolio (NYSE:NAPA)

US26414D1063

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

The Duckhorn Portfolio stock research in summary

duckhornportfolio.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 96 (better than 96% compared with investment alternatives), The Duckhorn Portfolio (Distillers & Vintners, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of The Duckhorn Portfolio are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 87) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 82, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 96, is a strong buy recommendation based on The Duckhorn Portfolio's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company The Duckhorn Portfolio exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 39), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 87). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 82) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	39
Growth Rank	87
Safety Rank	82
Combined Rank	96

Country	USA
Industry	Distillers & Vintners
Index	S&P US Food & Beverage
Size class	Medium

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: The Duckhorn Portfolio

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	13	44	39
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	67	43	87
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	70	88	82
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	72	22	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	63	48	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Jul-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better The Duckhorn Portfolio is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	n/a	13	44	39
GROWTH
GROWTH	n/a	67	43	87
SAFETY
SAFETY	n/a	70	88	82
COMBINED
COMBINED	n/a	49	71	96

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of The Duckhorn Portfolio the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with alternatives), The Duckhorn Portfolio shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for The Duckhorn Portfolio. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 53 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 53% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning The Duckhorn Portfolio's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 81, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 81% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 83% of alternatives (only 17% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on The Duckhorn Portfolio's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	n/a	9	26	17
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	n/a	9	73	53
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	n/a	60	86	81
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	n/a	1	1	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	n/a	13	44	39

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of The Duckhorn Portfolio; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, The Duckhorn Portfolio shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for The Duckhorn Portfolio. Sales Growth has a value of 74, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 74% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 82 and for Capital Growth with 62. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 57, which means they have been higher than 57% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 87, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, The Duckhorn Portfolio exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	n/a	74	92	74
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	48	30	82
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	39	57	62
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	n/a	69	3	57
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	n/a	67	43	87

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of The Duckhorn Portfolio.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company The Duckhorn Portfolio has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of The Duckhorn Portfolio is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for The Duckhorn Portfolio.Leverage is at 78, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 78% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 85, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 42, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 58% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives), The Duckhorn Portfolio has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for The Duckhorn Portfolio more challenging. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	n/a	70	78	78
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	n/a	69	85	85
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	n/a	45	63	42
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	n/a	70	88	82

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of The Duckhorn Portfolio and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	87	78	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	5	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	6	22	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	94	57	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	72	22	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for The Duckhorn Portfolio.
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