Fact based stock research
The Duckhorn Portfolio (NYSE:NAPA)
US26414D1063
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
The Duckhorn Portfolio stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with investment alternatives), The Duckhorn Portfolio (Distillers & Vintners, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of The Duckhorn Portfolio are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 82, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 98, is a strong buy recommendation based on The Duckhorn Portfolio's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company The Duckhorn Portfolio exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 97). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 82) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Distillers & Vintners |
| Index | S&P US Food & Beverage |
| Size class | Medium |
26-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: The Duckhorn Portfolio
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | n/a |
|
13 |
|
44 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | n/a |
|
67 |
|
43 |
|
97 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | n/a |
|
70 |
|
88 |
|
82 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
72 |
|
22 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
63 |
|
48 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 98 (better than 98% compared with investment alternatives), The Duckhorn Portfolio (Distillers & Vintners, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of The Duckhorn Portfolio are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 82, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 98, is a strong buy recommendation based on The Duckhorn Portfolio's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company The Duckhorn Portfolio exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 37), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 97). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 82) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | n/a |
|
13 |
|
44 |
|
37 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | n/a |
|
67 |
|
43 |
|
97 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | n/a |
|
70 |
|
88 |
|
82 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | n/a |
|
49 |
|
71 |
|
98 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 37 (worse than 63% compared with alternatives), The Duckhorn Portfolio shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators where three out of four are below average for The Duckhorn Portfolio. Only the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) indicates good stock value with a Price-to-Book Rank of 81, which means that the stock price is lower compared with invested capital than for 81% of comparable investments. All other value indicators are below the market median. Price-to-Sales is 17 which means the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 83% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning The Duckhorn Portfolio's revenue levels. The same is valid for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 81 and for the dividend yields rank which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 37, is a hold recommendation based on The Duckhorn Portfolio's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Why are market participants paying such a high price for The Duckhorn Portfolio, where three out of four value indicators are below par? One reason could be that the company is well financed, indicated by the high book capital level, and has a promising future that is not yet visible in reported revenues and profits. That would also explain the low dividend yield because the company needs the cash to invest in its future. If investors can verify a picture in this sense, the stock may still be a good investment, even though current company-reported financials don't fully explain current stock prices. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | n/a |
|
9 |
|
26 |
|
17 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | n/a |
|
9 |
|
73 |
|
48 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | n/a |
|
60 |
|
86 |
|
81 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | n/a |
|
13 |
|
44 |
|
37 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2024, The Duckhorn Portfolio shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for The Duckhorn Portfolio. Sales Growth has a value of 72, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 72% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 84 and for Capital Growth with 68. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 79, which means they have been higher than 79% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, The Duckhorn Portfolio exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | n/a |
|
74 |
|
92 |
|
72 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
48 |
|
30 |
|
84 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
39 |
|
57 |
|
68 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | n/a |
|
69 |
|
3 |
|
79 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | n/a |
|
67 |
|
43 |
|
97 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company The Duckhorn Portfolio has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of The Duckhorn Portfolio is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for The Duckhorn Portfolio.Leverage is at 78, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 78% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 85, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 40, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 60% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with alternatives), The Duckhorn Portfolio has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for The Duckhorn Portfolio more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | n/a |
|
70 |
|
78 |
|
78 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | n/a |
|
69 |
|
85 |
|
85 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | n/a |
|
45 |
|
63 |
|
40 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | n/a |
|
70 |
|
88 |
|
82 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
87 |
|
78 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
5 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
6 |
|
22 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
94 |
|
57 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
72 |
|
22 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for The Duckhorn Portfolio from December 26, 2024.
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