Fact based stock research
Tobu Railway (TSE:9001)

JP3597800006

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Tobu Railway stock research in summary

tobu.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 25 (worse than 75% compared with investment alternatives), Tobu Railway (Railroads, Japan) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Tobu Railway are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 73 (better than 73% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 5), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 29), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 25, is a hold recommendation based on Tobu Railway's financial characteristics. As the company Tobu Railway's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 73) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 5) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 29), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 73% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	73
Growth Rank	5
Safety Rank	29
Combined Rank	25

Country	Japan
Industry	Railroads
Index	Nikkei 225
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Tobu Railway

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	31	45	27	73
GROWTH
GROWTH	18	21	31	5
SAFETY
SAFETY	5	8	21	29
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	24	80	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	7	32	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Tobu Railway is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	31	45	27	73
GROWTH
GROWTH	18	21	31	5
SAFETY
SAFETY	5	8	21	29
COMBINED
COMBINED	8	8	11	25

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Tobu Railway the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 73 (better than 73% compared with alternatives), Tobu Railway shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Tobu Railway. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 66, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 66% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding Tobu Railway's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 78% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 72. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 37% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than Tobu Railway (a Dividend Yield Rank of 37). 63% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 73, is a buy recommendation based on Tobu Railway's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	71	59	48	66
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	1	45	31	78
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	58	60	34	72
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	32	29	28	37
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	31	45	27	73

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Tobu Railway; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 5 (better than 5% compared with alternatives), Tobu Railway shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Tobu Railway. Sales Growth has a rank of 29, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 71% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 31, and Capital Growth with 5. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 7, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 93% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 5, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	23	37	12	29
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	27	64	73	31
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	17	25	5
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	30	23	77	7
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	18	21	31	5

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Tobu Railway.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 29 (better than 29% compared with alternatives), the company Tobu Railway has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Tobu Railway is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Tobu Railway. Liquidity is at 84, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 84% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. But Refinancing is riskier at a rank of 1, which means that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 99% of its competitors. Leverage is also high at a rank of 18, which means that the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 82% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 29 (worse than 71% compared with alternatives), Tobu Railway has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. High Leverage (a low Obermatt Leverage Rank) is good in good times, because it usually indicates that shareholders get higher returns. The good Liquidity performance of the company is an indicator that this is the case. However, if you expect an economic downturn, you may stay clear of this stock because they have an above-average debt level that needs refinancing soon. If the company is sailing with good winds, as may be visible from the Growth and Sentiment performance, the refinancing risk may be lower than the low Refinancing rank suggests. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	10	22	18	18
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	8	3	3	1
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	20	30	66	84
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	5	8	21	29

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Tobu Railway and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	37	42	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	89	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	30	75	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	38	50	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	24	80	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Tobu Railway.
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