Fact based stock research
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL)

US8894781033

How to read the free ranks

For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Toll Brothers stock research in summary

tollbrothers.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 82 (better than 82% compared with investment alternatives), Toll Brothers (Homebuilding, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Toll Brothers are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 52, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 82, is a strong buy recommendation based on Toll Brothers's financial characteristics. As the company Toll Brothers's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 63) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 52), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 63% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	63
Growth Rank	47
Safety Rank	52
Combined Rank	82

Country	USA
Industry	Homebuilding
Index	Dividends USA, Employee Focus US, S&P MIDCAP
Size class	X-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

Multiple opinions. One number.

Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

Why popular stocks have low ratings

It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.

Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Toll Brothers

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	71	93	75	63
GROWTH
GROWTH	87	79	73	47
SAFETY
SAFETY	50	52	52	52
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	53	97	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	93	57	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 31-Jul-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Toll Brothers is in the corresponding investment strategy.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.

Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	71	93	75	63
GROWTH
GROWTH	87	79	73	47
SAFETY
SAFETY	50	52	52	52
COMBINED
COMBINED	80	82	82	82

Last update of combined financial performance: 10-Nov-2022. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Toll Brothers the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 63 (better than 63% compared with alternatives), Toll Brothers shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Toll Brothers. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price to earnings, P/E ratio) is 72 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 72% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Toll Brothers's profit levels. The same is valid for the expected Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 54, and for Dividend Yield with a Dividend Yield Rank of 61. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, the stock price is higher than average as regards expected revenues; only 60% of all competitors have an even higher stock price as regards to sales revenues (a Price-to-Sales Rank of 40). Profits, the level of invested capital, and dividend policy suggest that this stock is attractively priced. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 63, is a buy recommendation based on Toll Brothers's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since it is on the expensive side for Price-to-Sales, it may mean that Toll Brothers has pricing power in its distribution market because it can charge higher prices than its competitors. If this is the case, all four value indicators are positive signals for purchasing Toll Brothers shares. 9. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	67	71	40	40
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	71	67	83	72
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	59	87	55	54
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	45	75	66	61
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	71	93	75	63

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Toll Brothers; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), Toll Brothers shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Toll Brothers. Sales Growth has a rank of 74 which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow more than 74% of its competitors. Stock Returns are also above average with a rank of 75. But Capital Growth has only a rank of 32, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 68% of its competitors. Profit Growth is also low, with a rank of only 22, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits below average. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is a surprising picture, as the messages from the operating growth indicators of revenues, profits, and invested capital are mixed, while stock returns are above average. It may indicate new intellectual properties, such as brand improvement or a strong market position that shows in revenues but not in the capital. The low profit-growth rate may indicate an early phase where costs are still high, and revenues don't fully cover upfront investments or fixed costs. The positive investor outlook with a 75% peer outperformance is reaffirmed in this case which may be a good sign for an investment into a well-protected high-growth company. This fact needs to be confirmed by researching the company website and press. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	52	66	30	74
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	12	51	60	22
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	51	68	32
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	92	85	89	75
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	87	79	73	47

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Toll Brothers.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), the company Toll Brothers has financing practices on the safer side, which mean that their overall debt burden is lower than average. This doesn't mean that the business of Toll Brothers is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Toll Brothers. Leverage is at 56, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 56% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 85, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 85% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 63, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 63% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 52 (better than 52% compared with alternatives), Toll Brothers has a financing structure that is safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Toll Brothers but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	18	42	64	56
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	94	85	85	85
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	46	49	68	63
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	50	52	52	52

Last update of Safety Rank: 10-Nov-2022. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Toll Brothers and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	14	65	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	45	93	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	89	79	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	48	56	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	53	97	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Toll Brothers.
Upgrade to a Premium Account to access the latest ranks.