Fact based stock research
Transurban (ASX:TCL)
AU000000TCL6
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Transurban stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with investment alternatives), Transurban (Highways & Railtracks, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Transurban are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 3), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on Transurban's financial characteristics. As the company Transurban's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 21), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 3), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
Latest Obermatt Ranks
Log in or sign up to see the new 360° View and Sentiment ranks.
360° Viewnew| Country | Australia |
| Industry | Highways & Railtracks |
| Index | ASX 100, ASX 200, ASX 300, ASX 50, Renewables Users |
| Size class | Large |
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
It’s easier said than done. When your stock drops, it’s easy to want to sell it and find a better performer. Think twice, or even three times, before trading. Those fees (especially the hidden ones) can eat up your gains.
Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Transurban
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 43 |
|
15 |
|
19 |
|
21 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 17 |
|
57 |
|
43 |
|
47 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 19 |
|
24 |
|
7 |
|
3 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
19 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
13 |
|
4 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 9 (worse than 91% compared with investment alternatives), Transurban (Highways & Railtracks, Australia) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Transurban are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% of alternatives), show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 47), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 3), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation based on Transurban's financial characteristics. As the company Transurban's key financial metrics all exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 21), low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 47), and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 3), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. Such poor financial performance sometimes indicates that the company's business is all concentrated in some distant future. This is sometimes the case for high-tech or biotechnology companies. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and risky today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts are all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that should only amount to a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 43 |
|
15 |
|
19 |
|
21 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 17 |
|
57 |
|
43 |
|
47 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 19 |
|
24 |
|
7 |
|
3 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 17 |
|
24 |
|
7 |
|
9 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Transurban shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Transurban. Only the metric dividend yield has an above-average rank, reflecting that dividend practices are expected to be higher than 82% of comparable companies, making the stock an attractive buy for dividend investors. However, dividend investors may get disappointed because all other critical financial indicators are below the market median: Price-to-Sales is 5 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 95% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Transurban's sales levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a rank of 3 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profit levels is higher than 97% of comparable companies. In addition, Price-to-Book (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 3 is also low. Compared with invested capital, the stock price is higher than for 97% of comparable investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 21, is a sell recommendation based on Transurban's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Should dividend investors pick Transurban? The company-reported financials speak against it. The company is expensive compared with revenue and invested capital levels, two reliable company size indicators. In addition, it currently has a low level of profits. How can future dividends be paid in the case that profits remain low? Dividend investors should choose Transurban only if they reasonably expect the low current profit levels to be transitory. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 12 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
5 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 88 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 12 |
|
12 |
|
10 |
|
3 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 70 |
|
80 |
|
79 |
|
82 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 43 |
|
15 |
|
19 |
|
21 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 47 (better than 47% compared with alternatives), Transurban shows a below-average growth dynamic in its industry. There is limited momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Transurban. Sales Growth has a rank of 76 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 76% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 70, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 53, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 1, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 99% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 6 |
|
67 |
|
48 |
|
76 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 48 |
|
57 |
|
98 |
|
70 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
30 |
|
15 |
|
1 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 30 |
|
51 |
|
47 |
|
53 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 17 |
|
57 |
|
43 |
|
47 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 3 (better than 3% compared with alternatives), the company Transurban has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Transurban is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Transurban. Liquidity is at 16, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 84% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 8, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 92% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 31 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 69% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 3 (worse than 97% compared with alternatives), Transurban has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Transurban because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 32 |
|
24 |
|
20 |
|
8 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 34 |
|
43 |
|
27 |
|
31 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 21 |
|
48 |
|
18 |
|
16 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 19 |
|
24 |
|
7 |
|
3 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
59 |
|
51 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
63 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
20 |
|
15 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
9 |
|
44 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
19 |
|
18 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Transurban from November 14, 2024.
Obermatt Portfolio Performance
We’re so convinced about our free research, that we buy our stock tips.
See the performance of the Obermatt portfolio.