Fact based stock research
Triumph Financial (NasdaqGS:TFIN)
US89679E3009
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Triumph Financial stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with investment alternatives), Triumph Financial (Regional Banks, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Triumph Financial are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 87), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation based on Triumph Financial's financial characteristics. As the company Triumph Financial's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 87) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Regional Banks |
| Index | Sound Pay USA, NASDAQ |
| Size class | Medium |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Triumph Financial
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 82 |
|
96 |
|
83 |
|
19 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 49 |
|
22 |
|
90 |
|
87 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
3 |
|
42 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with investment alternatives), Triumph Financial (Regional Banks, USA) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Triumph Financial are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% of alternatives) and show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 19) but are safely financed (Safety Rank of 87), which means low debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation based on Triumph Financial's financial characteristics. As the company Triumph Financial's critical financial metrics exhibit below-average performance, such as low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 1) and low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 19), it is a somewhat questionable stock investment, where the risk of paying too much for the shares is significant, unless the company has an exceptionally bright future. In this case, good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 87) are a positive sign, because it may allow the company to weather challenging times until the hoped-for cash flows materialize. This may be true for high-tech or biotechnology companies with enough cash to sustain prolonged business development. If they own properties that only provide cash flows in the future, the stock may look excessively expensive and unattractive today. In such cases, the Obermatt Method has limited value, as it is based on facts we can observe today. If the facts lie all in the future, stock investing becomes guesswork, and this should only be a driver in a limited number of investments that account for a small fraction of a safe portfolio. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 82 |
|
96 |
|
83 |
|
19 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 49 |
|
22 |
|
90 |
|
87 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 41 |
|
22 |
|
67 |
|
19 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 1 (worse than 99% compared with alternatives), Triumph Financial shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Triumph Financial. Price-to-Sales is 11 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 89% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Triumph Financial's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 3, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Triumph Financial. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 3 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 1, is a sell recommendation based on Triumph Financial's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Triumph Financial? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Triumph Financial? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Triumph Financial may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 8 |
|
7 |
|
13 |
|
11 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 6 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 4 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), Triumph Financial shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators below average for Triumph Financial. Sales Growth has a below market rank of 46, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 54% of its competitors. The same is valid for Capital Growth, with a rank of 9, and Profit Growth, with a rank of 17. Currently, professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 83% of its competitors). Only shareholders are optimistic. Stock Returns are above average at a rank of 53, which means that the stock returns have recently been above 53% of alternative investments. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 19, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That picture may be the result for a company that has reached the bottom. All went south for Triumph Financial, and it still looks bad, but some investors already see light at the end of the tunnel, rewarding the stock with recent above-market stock returns. It could also mean that investors are correcting an overreaction to negative news. If that were the case, the positive stock returns are not yet a sign of recovery. Investors should look closely at the Value and Sentiment indicators before they make a stock purchasing decision, because growth is unlikely to be the driving argument behind this investment. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 78 |
|
74 |
|
85 |
|
46 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
65 |
|
6 |
|
17 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
72 |
|
79 |
|
9 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 96 |
|
95 |
|
100 |
|
53 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 82 |
|
96 |
|
83 |
|
19 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Triumph Financial has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Triumph Financial is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with two out of three indicators above-average for Triumph Financial. Refinancing is at 84, meaning the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 84% of its competitors. Liquidity is also good at 91, meaning the company generates more profit to service its debt than 91% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is safer when it comes to debt service. However, Leverage is rather large at 46, which means the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 54% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 87 (better than 87% compared with alternatives), Triumph Financial has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. This is not bad if things go well. The higher debt level means better returns to shareholders if things go well. Many top-performing companies operate with higher debt levels, and Triumph Financial could be in that group. But if you expect the environment to turn rougher, the higher leverage could become a problem. The same is valid if you expect interest rates to rise. That could squeeze shareholder returns, which so far have benefitted from better conditions. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Triumph Financial and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 53 |
|
24 |
|
55 |
|
46 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 12 |
|
54 |
|
90 |
|
84 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 78 |
|
42 |
|
73 |
|
91 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 49 |
|
22 |
|
90 |
|
87 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
17 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
12 |
|
25 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
46 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
18 |
|
13 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Triumph Financial from December 19, 2024.
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