Fact based stock research
Twilio (NYSE:TWLO)
US90138F1021
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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Twilio stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Twilio (Internet Services & Infrastructure, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Twilio are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 97, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 94, is a strong buy recommendation based on Twilio's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Twilio exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 47), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 97) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° Viewnew| Country | USA |
| Industry | Internet Services & Infrastructure |
| Index | |
| Size class | X-Large |
19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Twilio
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
39 |
|
63 |
|
47 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 68 |
|
61 |
|
81 |
|
59 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 21 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
97 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
100 |
|
53 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
89 |
|
80 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 94 (better than 94% compared with investment alternatives), Twilio (Internet Services & Infrastructure, USA) shares have much better financial characteristics than comparable stocks. Shares of Twilio are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% of alternatives). But they show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 59) and are safely financed (Safety Rank of 97, which means below-average debt burdens). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 94, is a strong buy recommendation based on Twilio's financial characteristics. Investors looking for growth and low financial risk may find this stock attractive. While the company Twilio exhibits low value (Obermatt Value Rank of 47), which means that the stock price is rather high, it also demonstrates above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 59). This is a typical case, as high-growth companies are often expensive. Good financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 97) are a double-edged sword: if the company continues growing, low debt limits shareholder returns. But if the company increases its debt, it will also increase risk. In other words, this is an investment on the safer side, despite the above-average price (low value). Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 1 |
|
39 |
|
63 |
|
47 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 68 |
|
61 |
|
81 |
|
59 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 21 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
97 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 15 |
|
24 |
|
24 |
|
94 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 47 (worse than 53% compared with alternatives), Twilio shares are more expensive than the average comparable stock. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Twilio. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 50 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 50% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Twilio's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 68, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 68% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than for 51% of alternatives (only 49% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than for 99% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive compared with the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 47, is a hold recommendation based on Twilio's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high concerning expected revenues, the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting Group or BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than distribute it to shareholders through dividends, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 6 |
|
25 |
|
58 |
|
49 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 1 |
|
3 |
|
45 |
|
50 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 29 |
|
71 |
|
80 |
|
68 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 1 |
|
39 |
|
63 |
|
47 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with alternatives), Twilio shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Twilio. Profit Growth has a rank of 58, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits more than 58% of its competitors. This is a good sign for shareholders, which is confirmed by an above-average Stock Returns rank of 83 (above 83% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has a below the median rank of 46, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 54% of its competitors, and Capital Growth also has a lower rank of 34. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Because revenues and invested capital are the more solid growth indicators, the positive development on the profit side is less relevant. It may have been caused by cost-cutting, which may be a negative growth indicator. Finally, the above-average stock returns recently are a thing of the past and not a good indicator of future returns. Investors should be confident that the cost-cutting initiative leading to higher profits is to benefit the company's future. If not, there is little growth momentum, and investment is only advisable if the Value Ranks suggest a good investment timing for Twilio. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 82 |
|
85 |
|
43 |
|
46 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | n/a |
|
11 |
|
98 |
|
58 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
79 |
|
60 |
|
34 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 71 |
|
29 |
|
73 |
|
83 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 68 |
|
61 |
|
81 |
|
59 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Twilio has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Twilio is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators where two out of three are above average for Twilio.Leverage is at 74, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 74% of its competitors.Refinancing is at a rank of 83, meaning that the portion of the debt that is about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 83% of its competitors. Liquidity is at 26, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 74% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side regarding debt service. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives), Twilio has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. Low leverage and low refinancing risk mean a safer financing situation. However, low liquidity means that current company cash flows are low in relation to the level of debt. This is a sign of caution in case it is expected for profits to remain low. Investors should compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before deciding. They may also want to investigate why cash flows are expected to be low, making debt service for Twilio more challenging. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 69 |
|
67 |
|
73 |
|
74 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 44 |
|
73 |
|
95 |
|
83 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 3 |
|
n/a |
|
n/a |
|
26 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 21 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
97 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
92 |
|
34 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
50 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
81 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
68 |
|
62 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
100 |
|
53 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Twilio from December 19, 2024.
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