Fact based stock research
Vista Group International (NZSE:VGL)

NZVGLE0003S1

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Vista Group International stock research in summary

vistagroup.co.nz

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 40 (worse than 60% compared with investment alternatives), Vista Group International (Application Software, New Zealand) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Vista Group International are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 19, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 97). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 40, is a hold recommendation based on Vista Group International's financial characteristics. As the company Vista Group International shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (83% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 97% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 97). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 19 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Vista Group International, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	17
Growth Rank	97
Safety Rank	19
Combined Rank	40

Country	New Zealand
Industry	Application Software
Index	NZSX 50
Size class	X-Small

14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Vista Group International

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	39	44	57	17
GROWTH
GROWTH	71	38	58	97
SAFETY
SAFETY	44	61	61	19
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	20	6	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	20	51	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 14-Nov-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Jun-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Vista Group International is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	39	44	57	17
GROWTH
GROWTH	71	38	58	97
SAFETY
SAFETY	44	61	61	19
COMBINED
COMBINED	23	72	72	40

Last update of combined financial performance: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Vista Group International the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 17 (worse than 83% compared with alternatives), Vista Group International shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Vista Group International. Price-to-Sales is 36 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 64% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Vista Group International's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 47, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Vista Group International. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 5 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 17, is a sell recommendation based on Vista Group International's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Vista Group International? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Vista Group International? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Vista Group International may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	61	57	66	36
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	21	12	67	5
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	67	59	57	47
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	1	51	36	1
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	39	44	57	17

Last update of Value Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Vista Group International; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 97 (better than 97% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Vista Group International shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators above average for Vista Group International. Sales Growth has a value of 54, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 54% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth with a value of 85 and for Capital Growth with 94. In addition, Stock Returns had an above-average rank value of 93, which means they have been higher than 93% of comparable investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 97, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Since all Growth Ranks are positive, Vista Group International exhibits above-average growth momentum. This could be due to a uniquely strong market position, proprietary technology, or an extensive corporate acquisition strategy. Growth investors will find this an attractive investment opportunity, unless they expect that the current phase is transitory and will deteriorate in the future. The current performance could also be a temporary recovery from a very low point, such as a turn-around situation. In the case of a turn-around, the current performance may or may not be followed by a continuing positive development. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	36	4	34	54
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	n/a	1	65	85
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	76	55	94
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	70	86	56	93
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	71	38	58	97

Last update of Growth Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Vista Group International.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 19 (better than 19% compared with alternatives), the company Vista Group International has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Vista Group International is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Vista Group International. Liquidity is at 19, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 81% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 41, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 59% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 21 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 79% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 19 (worse than 81% compared with alternatives), Vista Group International has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Vista Group International because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	45	19	27	41
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	76	56	36	21
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	19	18	18	19
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	44	61	61	19

Last update of Safety Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Vista Group International and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	28	37	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	17	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	71	12	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	9	42	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	20	6	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 14-Nov-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Vista Group International.
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