Fact based stock research
Xero (ASX:XRO)
NZXROE0001S2
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Xero stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), Xero (Application Software, New Zealand) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Xero are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 4 (worse than 96% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 79). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Xero's financial characteristics. As the company Xero shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 4 (96% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 79% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 79). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Xero, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° ViewnewThis stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Xero
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 4 |
|
4 |
|
6 |
|
4 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 52 |
|
50 |
|
86 |
|
79 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 45 |
|
10 |
|
18 |
|
21 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
46 |
|
61 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
4 |
|
35 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 14 (worse than 86% compared with investment alternatives), Xero (Application Software, New Zealand) shares have lower financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Xero are low in value (priced high) with a consolidated Value Rank of 4 (worse than 96% of alternatives), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 21, which means above-average debt burdens) but show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 79). ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 14, is a sell recommendation based on Xero's financial characteristics. As the company Xero shows low value with an Obermatt Value Rank of 4 (96% of comparable investments are less expensive), investors should look at the other ranks. In this case, growth is expected to be above-average, better than 79% of comparable companies (Obermatt Growth Rank is 79). This is a typical case. Companies with above average growth tend to cost more than stocks with slower growth expectations. If this is a high-growth company, the low Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 is a good sign. The more debt a well-performing company has, the higher the returns to shareholders. However, if growth turns negative or interest rates increase, high debt may become a burden. If you believe the future is bright for Xero, even a low-value company (in terms of its key financial indicators) can be a good investment. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 4 |
|
4 |
|
6 |
|
4 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 52 |
|
50 |
|
86 |
|
79 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 45 |
|
10 |
|
18 |
|
21 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 33 |
|
1 |
|
16 |
|
14 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 4 (worse than 96% compared with alternatives), Xero shares are significantly more expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four indicators below average for Xero. Price-to-Sales is 9 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is higher than 91% of comparable companies, indicating a low value concerning Xero's sales levels. Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) also has a low Price-to-Book Rank of 12, which means that both reliable company size indicators, sales, and invested capital cannot explain the high stock price of Xero. In addition, the two profit-related value indicators, Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) with a low rank of 12 and Dividend Yield, which is lower than 99% of comparable companies, also make the stock more expensive compared with investment alternatives. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 4, is a sell recommendation based on Xero's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. How can market participants pay such a high price for Xero? One reason may be that the company is simply too popular. If enough people want a particular stock, its price can exceed reasonable levels. This is often the case for companies offering new and exciting products and everybody wants a piece of the action. Should you pay a lot for a hot stock such as Xero? It's risky, and even if the stock price continues to grow because of popular demand, it may return to more typical lower levels later. And that return can be sudden and quick, making it impossible for retail investors to exit on time. Sometimes, high prices are deserved. This is the case when it is justified to believe that the company will dominate a market with high profit margins. It has happened in the past for many technology companies and indeed for commercially successful pharmaceutical discoveries. Sometimes they last, sometimes, they get eaten alive. Xero may be such a type of stock. That would mean, retail investors should be careful, only considering investing a small part of their wealth in this exciting category and always being ready to lose more than half, if not all of the investment. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is essential in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 11 |
|
9 |
|
13 |
|
9 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 26 |
|
5 |
|
15 |
|
12 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 4 |
|
9 |
|
8 |
|
12 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 4 |
|
4 |
|
6 |
|
4 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 79 (better than 79% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Xero shows one of the highest growth dynamics in its industry. Investors also speak of high momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all but one indicator above average for Xero. Sales Growth has a rank of 81 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 81% of its competitors. Both Profit Growth, with a rank of 62, and Stock Returns, with a rank of 79, are also above average. But Capital Growth only has a rank of 13, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital less than 87% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 79, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. That may be a good sign if the company is already well positioned and doesn't require more investments at this time. They may focus on growing the top (revenues) and bottom (profits) lines, recently rewarded with above-average stock returns for shareholders. But it may also be a sign of danger as the company is falling back with capital investment activities concerning competition. This requires further analysis of corporate communications. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 56 |
|
68 |
|
74 |
|
81 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 85 |
|
4 |
|
98 |
|
62 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
59 |
|
43 |
|
13 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 71 |
|
54 |
|
86 |
|
79 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 52 |
|
50 |
|
86 |
|
79 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 21 (better than 21% compared with alternatives), the company Xero has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Xero is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Xero. Liquidity is at 32, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 68% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 11, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 89% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 41 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 59% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 21 (worse than 79% compared with alternatives), Xero has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Xero because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 23 |
|
5 |
|
3 |
|
11 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 56 |
|
14 |
|
38 |
|
41 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 45 |
|
23 |
|
34 |
|
32 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 45 |
|
10 |
|
18 |
|
21 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
38 |
|
44 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
42 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
31 |
|
31 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
77 |
|
71 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
46 |
|
61 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Xero from November 14, 2024.
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