Fact based stock research
Aiful (TSE:8515)

JP3105040004

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Aiful stock research in summary

aiful.co.jp

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 59 (better than 59% compared with investment alternatives), Aiful (Consumer Finance, Japan) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Aiful are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 71 (better than 71% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 57) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 30), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 59, is a buy recommendation based on Aiful's financial characteristics. As the company Aiful's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 71) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 57), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 30) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	71
Growth Rank	57
Safety Rank	30
Combined Rank	59

Country	Japan
Industry	Consumer Finance
Index
Size class	Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Aiful

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	71	51	63	71
GROWTH
GROWTH	44	49	49	57
SAFETY
SAFETY	1	94	17	30
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	38	12	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	75	13	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Aiful is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	71	51	63	71
GROWTH
GROWTH	44	49	49	57
SAFETY
SAFETY	1	94	17	30
COMBINED
COMBINED	21	92	28	59

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Aiful the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 71 (better than 71% compared with alternatives), Aiful shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with three out of four indicators above average for Aiful. Price-to-Sales (P/S) is 72, which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 72% of comparable companies, indicating a good value regarding Aiful's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price to Profits (or Price / Earnings, P/E), more favorable than for 95% of alternatives, and it's also true for the Price-to-Book Capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 91. But, compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields are expected to be lower than average; only 8% of all competitors have even lower dividend yields than Aiful (a Dividend Yield Rank of 8). 92% alternative investments in the same business provide a higher dividend yield. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 71, is a buy recommendation based on Aiful's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. The below-average dividend yield may be a good sign, as it could mean the company has more attractive investment opportunities for the generated cash than to pay it out as dividends. A low dividend yield can also indicate a growth phase. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	91	76	80	72
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	76	75	93	95
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	70	59	62	91
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	24	14	12	8
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	71	51	63	71

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Aiful; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 57 (better than 57% compared with alternatives), Aiful shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Aiful. Sales Growth has a rank of 78 which means that currently, professionals expect the company to grow more than 78% of its competitors. Capital Growth is also above 32% of competitors with a rank of 89. But Profit Growth only has a rank of 32, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its profits less than 68% of its competitors. And Stock Returns have also been below average with a rank of only 17. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 57, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. Profits are sometimes low if the company invests in the future. The positive revenue and capital investment outlook confirms such an interpretation. Both revenues and capital are solid growth indicators, and lower profits in such a case would be encouraging. But the investors see it differently by punishing the share price. Sometimes, Mister Market is not very reliable, because it is not uncommon for it to be volatile. Investors should look out for signs of growth expenditure that could justify low profit growth, and they may also find reasons why recent stock price developments don't confirm the growth outlook of operations. While operating growth indicators are not perfect, they are more reliable indicators for future performance than stock prices that can repeatedly surprise investors. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	19	56	81	78
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	56	20	22	32
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	27	83	89
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	64	89	27	17
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	44	49	49	57

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Aiful.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 30 (better than 30% compared with alternatives), the company Aiful has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Aiful is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Aiful and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 71, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 71% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 40, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 60% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 26, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 74% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 30 (worse than 70% compared with alternatives), Aiful has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Aiful are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Aiful and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	12	38	40	40
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	4	63	71	71
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	14	98	25	26
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	1	94	17	30

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Aiful and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	73	84	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	6	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	10	10	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	46	17	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	38	12	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Aiful.
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