Fact based stock research
Alfresa Holdings (TSE:2784)

JP3126340003

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

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Alfresa Holdings stock research in summary

alfresa.com

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 69 (better than 69% compared with investment alternatives), Alfresa Holdings (Health Care Distributors, Japan) shares have above-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Alfresa Holdings are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% of alternatives), are safely financed (Safety Rank of 86, which means low debt burdens), but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 7). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 69, is a buy recommendation based on Alfresa Holdings's financial characteristics. As the company Alfresa Holdings's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 93) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 7) while being safely financed (Obermatt Safety Rank of 86), it may be a safer investment because companies with low debt can better withstand times of crises. Yet the good value, better than 93% of comparable companies, may also indicate that the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity and the downside is limited due to below-average financing risks. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	93
Growth Rank	7
Safety Rank	86
Combined Rank	69

Country	Japan
Industry	Health Care Distributors
Index
Size class	XX-Large

19-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Alfresa Holdings

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	100	99	83	93
GROWTH
GROWTH	9	1	35	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	97	88	88	86
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	26	38	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	61	70	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 19-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Alfresa Holdings is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	100	99	83	93
GROWTH
GROWTH	9	1	35	7
SAFETY
SAFETY	97	88	88	86
COMBINED
COMBINED	97	85	85	69

Last update of combined financial performance: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Alfresa Holdings the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 93 (better than 93% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Alfresa Holdings shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Alfresa Holdings. Price-to-Sales is 93 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 93% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Alfresa Holdings's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 70% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 87. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Alfresa Holdings are expected to be higher than for 76% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 76). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 93, is a buy recommendation based on Alfresa Holdings's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Alfresa Holdings based on its detailed value metrics. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	97	95	97	93
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	74	76	45	70
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	100	95	78	87
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	80	82	65	76
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	100	99	83	93

Last update of Value Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Alfresa Holdings; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 7 (better than 7% compared with alternatives), Alfresa Holdings shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Alfresa Holdings. Sales Growth has a rank of 8, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 92% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 32, and Capital Growth with 37. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 35, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 65% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 7, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	3	17	10	8
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	27	6	40	32
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	1	40	37
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	29	21	85	35
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	9	1	35	7

Last update of Growth Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Alfresa Holdings.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives) for 2024, the company Alfresa Holdings has safe financing practices, which means that their overall debt burden is low. This doesn't mean that the business of Alfresa Holdings is safe, it only means that the company is on the safer side regarding possible bankruptcy, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, where all three are above average for Alfresa Holdings. Leverage is at 69, meaning the company has a below-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has less debt than 69% of its competitors. Refinancing is at a rank of 88, meaning that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 88% of its competitors. Finally, Liquidity is also good at a rank of 78, which means that the company generates more profit to service its debt than 78% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 86 (better than 86% compared with alternatives), Alfresa Holdings has a financing structure that is significantly safer than that of its competitors. These three positive financing indicators signal that the company is less likely to default on its debt obligations. However, it also means that its shareholder returns will be more modest if things go well. A low safety means fewer troubles in downtimes and less upside in good times. Investors may not have a debt issue with Alfresa Holdings but they should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	98	84	90	69
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	64	96	76	88
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	100	82	84	78
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	97	88	88	86

Last update of Safety Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Alfresa Holdings and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	5	15	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	50	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	47	45	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	69	71	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	26	38	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 19-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Alfresa Holdings.
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