Fact based stock research
Amcor (ASX:AMC)
AU000000AMC4
How to read the free ranks
For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".
Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".
Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.
Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.
(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).
(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.
Amcor stock research in summary
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Amcor (Paper Packaging, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Amcor are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 53) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 18), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Amcor's financial characteristics. As the company Amcor's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 53), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 18) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
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360° ViewnewThis stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.
14-Nov-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.
Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.
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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.
Research History: Amcor
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 56 |
|
21 |
|
55 |
|
51 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 21 |
|
49 |
|
19 |
|
53 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 14 |
|
12 |
|
18 |
|
18 |
|
| SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
57 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
| 360° VIEW | ||||||||
| 360° VIEW | n/a |
|
9 |
|
28 |
|
new |
|
Combined financial peformance in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 39 (worse than 61% compared with investment alternatives), Amcor (Paper Packaging, Australia) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Amcor are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% of alternatives), show above-average growth (Growth Rank of 53) but are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 18), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 39, is a hold recommendation based on Amcor's financial characteristics. As the company Amcor's key financial metrics exhibit excellent performance in two areas, such as good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 51) and above-average growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 53), it could be argued that the risk-taking in financing (Obermatt Safety Rank of only 18) indicates that the company is optimistic about the future and sees debt as an opportunity to boost returns. More debt means more shareholder returns if everything goes well. However, higher debt burdens are risky when interest rates rise or the business deteriorates in a crisis. If you believe the company's future is market-typical or even better, this could be an argument for a share purchase. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more
| RESEARCH HISTORY | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | ||||||||
| VALUE | 56 |
|
21 |
|
55 |
|
51 |
|
| GROWTH | ||||||||
| GROWTH | 21 |
|
49 |
|
19 |
|
53 |
|
| SAFETY | ||||||||
| SAFETY | 14 |
|
12 |
|
18 |
|
18 |
|
| COMBINED | ||||||||
| COMBINED | 10 |
|
4 |
|
20 |
|
39 |
|
Value Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 51 (better than 51% compared with alternatives), Amcor shares are more attractively priced than the majority of comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Amcor. Price-to-Profit (also referred to as price-earnings, P/E) is 51 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future profits is lower than for 51% of comparable companies, indicating a good value concerning Amcor's profit levels. The same is valid for Price-to-Book Capital (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Book Rank of 1, which means that the stock price is lower as regards to invested capital than for 1% of comparable investments. On the other hand, Price-to-Sales is less favorable than 59% of alternatives (only 41% of peers have an even less favorable ratio). The same is valid for dividend yield, which is lower than 4% of comparable companies, making the stock more expensive as regards to the company's expected dividend payouts. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 51, is a buy recommendation based on Amcor's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. This is a puzzling picture, because it means that profits are high while dividends are low. Since the stock price is low compared with invested capital but high in respect to expected revenues, it means that the company has more invested capital than peers for generating the same amount of revenue. Since profits are higher, it could be a "cash cow" situation (using the classic Boston Consulting BCG matrix naming convention) where the company is on a downward trend, still living from the profits of past products. As the company pays low dividends, it may harbor the opinion that a turnaround is possible, and it rather invests the cash than pay it out to shareholders, thus sealing the company's fate early. Any investment optimism should only be a buy trigger once thorough research is completed. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision, which is especially important in this case, as the financial indicators are inconclusive. ...read more
| VALUE METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S) | 73 |
|
38 |
|
48 |
|
41 |
|
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E) | 41 |
|
27 |
|
56 |
|
51 |
|
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | ||||||||
| PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book) | 22 |
|
15 |
|
11 |
|
1 |
|
| DIVIDEND YIELD | ||||||||
| DIVIDEND YIELD | 78 |
|
63 |
|
87 |
|
96 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE | 56 |
|
21 |
|
55 |
|
51 |
|
Growth Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 53 (better than 53% compared with alternatives), Amcor shows an above-average growth dynamic in its industry. Investors also speak of positive momentum. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with half of the indicators below and half above average for Amcor. Capital Growth has a rank of 61, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow its invested capital more than 44% of its competitors. Investors welcomed this, visible in the Stock Returns rank of 73 (above 73% of alternative investments). But Sales Growth has only a rank of 32, which means that, currently, professionals expect the company to grow less than 68% of its competitors, and Profit Growth is also low at a rank of 44. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 53, is a buy recommendation for growth and momentum investors. This is an ambiguous picture. Revenue growth and capital growth are strong, but the growth in profit, which seems good, can also be an indication that growth momentum may be negative. The fact that stock returns have been above average doesn't help much, as stock returns are less reliable in showing a company’s future growth potential. Prices may perform well for the simple reason that investors were too pessimistic in the past and are now correcting their opinions and moving the stock price to a more reasonable level. As the growth picture is mixed for Amcor, investors may want to look at value and sentiment indicators for a well-rounded picture of this stock. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is mixed here. ...read more
| GROWTH METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE GROWTH | ||||||||
| REVENUE GROWTH | 33 |
|
21 |
|
23 |
|
32 |
|
| PROFIT GROWTH | ||||||||
| PROFIT GROWTH | 47 |
|
31 |
|
42 |
|
44 |
|
| CAPITAL GROWTH | ||||||||
| CAPITAL GROWTH | n/a |
|
66 |
|
64 |
|
61 |
|
| STOCK RETURNS | ||||||||
| STOCK RETURNS | 32 |
|
63 |
|
13 |
|
73 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH | 21 |
|
49 |
|
19 |
|
53 |
|
Safety Metrics in Detail
ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 18 (better than 18% compared with alternatives), the company Amcor has much riskier financing practices than comparable other companies, which means that their overall debt burden is significantly above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Amcor is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with all three metrics below average for Amcor. Liquidity is at 49, meaning that the company generates less profit to service its debt than 51% of its competitors. This indicates that the company is on the riskier side when it comes to debt service. Even worse, Leverage is at a rank of 6, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 94% of its competitors. Finally, Refinancing is at a rank of 25 which means that the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is above average. It has more debt in the refinancing stage than 75% of its competitors. ...read more
RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 18 (worse than 82% compared with alternatives), Amcor has a financing structure that is significantly riskier than that of its competitors. This combination is rather dangerous in most situations. Only very promising companies with bright future outlooks and stellar reputations can operate with such risky financing. Investors should look at Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks to confirm a very positive outlook or be careful with investing in stocks of Amcor because it may suffer significantly in case of future difficulties. ...read more
| SAFETY METRICS | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE | ||||||||
| LEVERAGE | 8 |
|
10 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
| REFINANCING | ||||||||
| REFINANCING | 68 |
|
15 |
|
27 |
|
25 |
|
| LIQUIDITY | ||||||||
| LIQUIDITY | 38 |
|
31 |
|
41 |
|
49 |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY | 14 |
|
12 |
|
18 |
|
18 |
|
Sentiment Metrics in Detail
| SENTIMENT | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANALYST OPINIONS | ||||||||
| ANALYST OPINIONS | n/a |
|
36 |
|
23 |
|
new |
|
| OPINIONS CHANGE | ||||||||
| OPINIONS CHANGE | n/a |
|
64 |
|
50 |
|
new |
|
| PRO HOLDINGS | ||||||||
| PRO HOLDINGS | n/a |
|
22 |
|
77 |
|
new |
|
| MARKET PULSE | ||||||||
| MARKET PULSE | n/a |
|
89 |
|
72 |
|
new |
|
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | ||||||||
| CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT | n/a |
|
57 |
|
63 |
|
new |
|
Free stock analysis by the purely fact based Obermatt Method for Amcor from November 14, 2024.
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