Fact based stock research
Cosan (BOVESPA:CSAN3)

BRCSANACNOR6

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For every stock, we judge its performance against its peers and rank it on a scale of 1 to 100. The higher the rank, the better the stock performs than its peers. And, we do this for six investment strategies:
Value - shows how good of a value the stock is. Green is "inexpensive"; red is "expensive".

Growth - shows a company's growth potential. Green is "high growth" expected; red is "tough times ahead".

Safety - relates to the amount of debt a company has. Green is low debt level; red is high debt level.

Combined Financial - this isn't an average of the first three ranks but rather a consolidated view across several financial indicators. Green = good; red = tread carefully.

(NEW) Sentiment - quantifies professional analyst ratings and holdings as well as market pulse. Green = positive sentiment; red = skepticism (Only available to Premium Subscribers).

(NEW) 360° View - the ultimate rating with all financial and non-financial indicators.

Cosan stock research in summary

ir.cosan.com.br

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Combined Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with investment alternatives), Cosan (Oil & Gas Refining, Brazil) shares have somewhat below-average financial characteristics compared with similar stocks. Shares of Cosan are a good value (attractively priced) with a consolidated Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% of alternatives) but show below-average growth (Growth Rank of 9), and are riskily financed (Safety Rank of 49), which means above-average debt burdens. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: A Combined Rank of 49, is a hold recommendation based on Cosan's financial characteristics. As the company Cosan's key financial metrics exhibit good value (Obermatt Value Rank of 100) but low growth (Obermatt Growth Rank of 9) and risky financing practices (Obermatt Safety Rank of 49), it may be a risky investment, because debt in times of crises can make things worse. The good value, better than 100% of comparable companies, may indicate the company's future is challenging. If you believe that low growth is temporary or just due to a specific current event, you may conclude that the good value of the stock provides an attractive investment opportunity. Obermatt Premium subscribers can further check the stock’s Sentiment Ranks, which also flow into the Obermatt 360° View for investors. ...read more

Latest Obermatt Ranks


360° View^new
Sentiment Rank^new
Value Rank	100
Growth Rank	9
Safety Rank	49
Combined Rank	49

Country	Brazil
Industry	Oil & Gas Refining
Index	BOVESPA, Human Rights
Size class	X-Large

This stock has achievements: Top 10 Stock.

26-Dec-2024. Stock data may be delayed. Log in or sign up to get the most recent research.

Further information

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Analysts rarely agree on a stock’s future. So, who do you believe? Obermatt translates those collective views into a single Sentiment Rank. That plus the financial ranks give you the ultimate 360° View. Sign up to access them.

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Review the performance ranks of the individual metrics that form each investment strategy.

Research History: Cosan

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	26	62	56	100
GROWTH
GROWTH	44	79	31	9
SAFETY
SAFETY	32	60	25	49
SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT	n/a	47	42	^new
360° VIEW
360° VIEW	n/a	77	26	^new

Most recent update of the stock research: 26-Dec-2024. Financial reporting date used for calculating ranks: 30-Sep-2024. Stock research history is based on the Obermatt Method. The higher the rank, the better Cosan is in the corresponding investment strategy.
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Combined financial peformance in Detail

RESEARCH HISTORY	2021	2022	2023	2024
VALUE
VALUE	26	62	56	100
GROWTH
GROWTH	44	79	31	9
SAFETY
SAFETY	32	60	25	49
COMBINED
COMBINED	15	86	24	49

Last update of combined financial performance: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on combined financial performance: The higher the rank of Cosan the better the performance.

Value Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Value Rank of 100 (better than 100% compared with alternatives) for 2024, Cosan shares are significantly less expensive than comparable stocks. The Value Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators that are all above average for Cosan. Price-to-Sales is 95 which means that the stock price compared with what market professionals expect for future sales is lower than for 95% of comparable companies, indicating a good value for Cosan's revenue size. The same is valid for expected Price-to-Profits, more favorable than for 97% of alternatives, and this is also true for the Price-to-Book capital ratio (also referred to as market-to-book ratio) with a Price-to-Capital Rank of 97. Compared with other companies in the same industry, dividend yields of Cosan are expected to be higher than for 94% of all competitors (a Dividend Yield rank of 94). ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Value Rank of 100, is a buy recommendation based on Cosan's stock price compared with the company's operational size and dividend yields. Since all value metrics are above the industry average, there is no objection to investing in Cosan based on its detailed value metrics. We recommend further analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks, including the 360° View, before making an investment decision. ...read more

VALUE METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)
PRICE VS. REVENUES (P/S)	50	71	83	95
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)
PRICE VS. PROFITS (P/E)	66	71	33	97
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)
PRICE VS. CAPITAL (Market-to-Book)	10	52	62	97
DIVIDEND YIELD
DIVIDEND YIELD	45	68	63	94
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE
CONSOLIDATED RANK: VALUE	26	62	56	100

Last update of Value Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on value ratios: The higher the rank, the lower the value ratio of Cosan; except for dividend yield where the rank is higher, the higher the yield.

Growth Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Growth Rank of 9 (better than 9% compared with alternatives), Cosan shows one of the most restricted growth dynamics in its industry. There is little momentum in this company. The Growth Rank is based on consolidating four value indicators, with all four metrics below average for Cosan. Sales Growth has a rank of 39, which means that currently professionals expect the company to grow less than 61% of its competitors. The same is valid for Profit Growth, with a rank of 8, and Capital Growth with 48. In addition, Stock Returns have a below market rank of 5, which means that the stock returns have recently been below 95% of alternative investments. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: The overall picture with a consolidated Growth Rank of 9, is a sell recommendation for growth and momentum investors. These are all bad growth momentum indicators. These are negative signals for investors interested in growth companies. Value is likely good for this company, as investors may have left this stock in the cold. If that is the case, investors should look at the company's outlook, especially Sentiment performance, because it may be a turnaround situation that could entail above-average stock returns in the future. But it remains a risky bet, as no growth signals are in the green zone yet. While momentum is a popular investment factor, the value aspect might be the more important one, in the longer term. We recommend analyzing the stock with Obermatt’s Value, Safety, and Sentiment Ranks to arrive at a 360° View of the stock purchase case, especially since the growth performance is low here. ...read more

GROWTH METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
REVENUE GROWTH
REVENUE GROWTH	82	73	39	39
PROFIT GROWTH
PROFIT GROWTH	87	86	33	8
CAPITAL GROWTH
CAPITAL GROWTH	n/a	53	41	48
STOCK RETURNS
STOCK RETURNS	43	45	65	5
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH
CONSOLIDATED RANK: GROWTH	44	79	31	9

Last update of Growth Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on growth metrics: The higher the rank, the higher the growth and returns of Cosan.

Safety Metrics in Detail

ANALYSIS: With an Obermatt Safety Rank of 49 (better than 49% compared with alternatives), the company Cosan has financing practices on the riskier side, which means that their overall debt burden is above the industry average. This doesn't mean that the business of Cosan is also risky, it only means that the company is on the riskier side in respect to bankruptcy in case things turn sour, assuming that public reporting is correct. The Safety Rank is based on consolidating three financing indicators, with just one indicator above average for Cosan and the other two below average. Refinancing is at 100, meaning the portion of the debt about to be refinanced is below average. It has less debt in the refinancing stage than 100% of its competitors. But Leverage is high with a rank of 28, meaning the company has an above-average debt-to-equity ratio. It has more debt than 72% of its competitors. Liquidity is also on the riskier side with a rank of 14, meaning the company generates less profit to service its debt than 86% of its competitors. ...read more

RECOMMENDATION: With a consolidated Safety Rank of 49 (worse than 51% compared with alternatives), Cosan has a financing structure that is riskier than that of its competitors. A good Refinancing Rank means that the problems of the company may not be around the corner. But high Leverage is only good if things go well, and low Liquidity is a signal for caution. The financing signals for Cosan are on the riskier side, requiring the company's future to be on the safer side. Investors may want to look at Growth and Sentiment ranks before making an investment decision. In the long-term, investors may have a debt challenge with Cosan and should also compare Obermatt’s Value, Growth, and Sentiment Ranks before making a decision. ...read more

SAFETY METRICS	2021	2022	2023	2024
LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE	29	22	26	28
REFINANCING
REFINANCING	55	95	73	100
LIQUIDITY
LIQUIDITY	35	37	7	14
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SAFETY	32	60	25	49

Last update of Safety Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on safety metrics: The higher the rank, the lower the leverage of Cosan and the more cash is available to service its debt.

Sentiment Metrics in Detail

SENTIMENT	2021	2022	2023	2024
ANALYST OPINIONS
ANALYST OPINIONS	n/a	30	48	^new
OPINIONS CHANGE
OPINIONS CHANGE	n/a	50	69	^new
PRO HOLDINGS
PRO HOLDINGS	n/a	59	16	^new
MARKET PULSE
MARKET PULSE	n/a	48	49	^new
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT
CONSOLIDATED RANK: SENTIMENT	n/a	47	42	^new

Last update of Sentiment Rank: 26-Dec-2024. Stock analysis on sentiment metrics: The higher the rank, the more positive the sentiment for Cosan.
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